Buy Gold With Bitcoin Online Silver Gold Bull Silver ...

What portfolio would you have If you could invest £100K?

I’m a 24 year old with a small sum of money, say it’s theoretically £100K (it’s nowhere near this value, just thought it would be an interesting amount to get some feedback for)! If you were in my shoes, what would you do? How would you invest it? What assets classes would you chose?
If I were to use an index - I feel like Vanguard All World Index seems like a safe bet - any other suggestions for indexes?
Let me know what you’re suggestions would be
submitted by Aggravating_Public_1 to UKInvesting [link] [comments]

10/11 Weekly Watchlist. [Again, I post one DAILY on the FREE telegram] List is a bit long but I'm watching a bit

10/11 WEEKLY WATCHLIST
[P.S. Only enter positions you feel the most comfortable with. Your money is your soldier only send him into the battle you think you'll win. Some of these I have taken positions. Some I am looking to take positions. I've posted how many shares I own of what multiple times ]
PLEASE HEDGE your long holds. For essentially pennies you can come out on a bloody day fine!
🔑KEY🔑
[💎-Long time gold][⁉️-Could go both ways][🚀-I think this is gonna shoot up][🔥-This imo is gonna be a fire stock to make money off of just dont get dumped on][⚠️-Already ran a bit be careful][👀-Watching this one closely][⭐- Huge Catalyst or info]
PRIMARY FOCUSES: $SQ $MARA⭐ $RIOT⭐ $SOLO⭐ $DBX⭐ $ADMP $SESN $UEC
🚀💸PENNYS💸🚀
🍊The Big Orange man who lives in the house that's white is pumping money into black business and so is JPM. Tickers to watch for this. $UONE $UONEK $CARV $BYFC🍊
$UEC - $WWR pumped because of uranium. Well this is a..... URANIUM MINE. Big brain! Daily MACD 🐮👀🔥🚀
$DPW - Shorts ate this like it was their last meal. This should have another big run with hoe the sectors are pumping. Support $2/$2.23 Resistance $2.37👀🔥🚀
$ADMP - ⭐FDA Nov 15th.FDA Likey Approved.⭐GOLDEN CROSS coming on the 4hr⭐ 4hr RSI OVERBOUGHT 4hDaily MACD 🐮 Support: $0.51 /$0.59/ $0.60 /$0.74 Gap up to $1.14 after that the world may never know🔥🚀👀⚠️💎
$SESN - ⭐4th Q Bio news ANYDAY now. ⭐Daily MACD 🐻 Support $1.01/$1.25 Resistances $1.38/ $1.44/$1.50🔥🚀👀💎
$PRTY - Halloween is coming up. Daily MACD looking to setup. This is a constant pump and dump stock. Was $5-7 all last year. Daily GRAVESTONE DOJI⚰ Support $1.85/$2.15/ $2.40 Resistance $3.80🔥
$KOS - ⭐Reorganized there debt⭐ 4hr HAMMER DOJI 🔨 Daily/4hr MACD🐮 I honestly can see $1.75-$2 shortly. $1 is a HEAVY support. 👀🔥🚀
$SOLO - Quarterly/Daily/ 4hr MACD 🐮GODLY Support: $2.36-$2.45. Resistances: $2.65/$2.74/$2.87/ $2.95/$3/ $3.14. ⭐US Manufacturing Location PR by EoY.⭐🔥👀💎 $GRIL - This company is undervalued in my eyes. Newish emerging fast "healthy" food. Great concept with little to no competition. Daily RSI still slight oversold. Daily MACD 🐮 ⭐Float is legit NANO sized. I truthfully see $5-7 by next year on this.[LONG]🔥🚀👀💎
💰Honorable Mentions💰
$NOK - Big 5g provider globally. Honestly think this is being slept one and should move up by EoY to $5+.Daily/4hr MACD Daily🐮 👀💎 $NAK - Mine has been waiting for approval for 10+ years. Trump tweeting about it. MASSIVE float [BAD]. If somehow it gets approved this is gonna jet to $4-6💎⁉️
$IDEX - Some PR dropping. I suspect earnings is gonna make this run up heavily [Nov 6th]
$RIOT/$MARA -⭐ ONLY if Bitcoin continues to run up.⭐
💰Non-Pennys💰 ⭐SPAC companies are blank check companies looking to merge. If the merge FAILS you are reimbursed $10.⭐
$JETS - Airline ETF. With the fed and uncle JPOW 3rd of his name pumping airlines this could zoom zoom zoom to the moon moon moon
$SPWR - Solar power is BOOMING. This has been uptrending for awhile. Support $13.28/$15.43 Resistances are unknown. Daily RSI OVERBOUGHT. 👀🔥🚀🚀⚠️⚠️
$PLUG - WAY 2 HIGH! OVERBOUGHT TO THE EXTREME! Alt energy is a thing of the future! Dont expect the lowest level support to he broken. Support $15.70/$17 [LONG]⚠️⚠️🔥🚀👀💎
$ASO - New IPO. They sell camping goods such as GUNS & AMMO. $CWH is +250% since COVID drop while selling similar goods. New so impossible to map out levels. 🔥🚀👀💎
$KIRK - Cup and Handle! Support $7.41/ $8.77/$10.16⁉️ Resistances $11.87. 4hDaily MACD🐮 ⭐4hr GOLDEN CROSS 9/18⭐Suspect earnings get SMASHED [LONG]👀🔥🚀⚠️
$MCAC - [SPAC] ⭐PLAYBOY⭐ is going public through them. Sheerly off the name.🔥💎🚀👀 $CRSR - ⭐Slept on IPO that just came out. Makes competitive gaming equipment. Super sponsors in ESPORTS which are growing vastely. IMO another great long. ⭐I see a bullflag formed on multiple time frames.[LONG]⚠️🔥👀💎
$CLSK - Just like PLUG the uptrend is insane. ⭐ $9 Offering⭐ 4hr MACD 🐮Almost NO DEBT! Support is around $10. This should gap back to $13+ when the offering closes. ☠SABBY IS IN THIS STOCK☠👀🔥🚀⚠️
$PLAY - I'm bullish as a bull can be for next Q earnings! Support $13.86/ $15.05 ⭐4hr GOLDEN CROSS coming early next week ⭐Daily MACD BREACHING 🐮 4hr MACD 🐮/🐻HUGE Gap up potential to $19/$20. I'd put moneyon earnings being beaten December🔥
$SPAQ - [SPAC] ⭐MERGER VOTE END OF OCT⭐4hr GOLDEN CROSS⭐I see $25 EoY. 4h Daily MACD turning 🐮 Support $11.90/ $12.99 Resistances $15/ $15.55/ $16.05. Fisker is a PR machine.🔥🚀👀💎
$JMIA - Cup and Handle! Huge E-commerce in Europe/Africa. 4hr OVERBOUGHT 4hDaily/Wkly MACD 🐮⭐1+2hr GOLDEN CROSS⭐ Support $9.79/ $10.16 Resistance $10.60-$10.70 [LONG]⚠️🔥🚀💎
$DBX - 5years of constant revenue growth. Huge inverse H&S. Wedge broke out bullish. Daily/4hWkly MACD🐮 Support $18.74/$19.10/ $19.58. Resistance $20.77/$21.29 /$22.76 Gap up to $23.48👀🔥🚀💎
$LCA - [SPAC] Merging with Golden Nugget[gambling]. Should easily hit $20-$25 in the next 4-6weeks. 💎
$SQ - ⭐1% of their ENTIRE company is now in BTC [50m]⭐ this means if BTC goes up it directly benefits them. Not to mention $SQ is just a great long. [LONG]💎👀🔥🚀
$LMND - ⭐90% of their customers are Millennials opening insurance their first time. [This shows HUGE potential long term growth!] [LONG]💎
$NEE - ⭐4:1 Split could run.Think AAPL & TSLA. [LONG]⚠️💎👀
$JWN - 4hr GRAVESTONE DOJI⚰ Daily MACD🐮4hr MACD🐻 Godly Support $11.70/$12.90 Resistance $14.22 [LONG]⚠️💎
🤑Notable Earnings🤑
OCTOBER
$DAL - 13th PM📈[Inverse Condors]
$JNJ - 13th PM⁉️
$JPM 13th PM⁉️
$UAL - 13th PM/AH?📈[Calls]
$BAC 14th PM📈[Calls]⭐
$WFC - 14th PM⁉️
$PYPL Estimated 18th ⁉️
$TUP Estimated 20th📈[Calls]
$LOGI Estimated 20th📉[Puts]
$LRN - 20th PM/AH?📈[Calls]⭐
$TXN - 20th PM/AH?📈[Calls]
$SNAP - 20th PM📉[Puts or Strangle]
$HOG - 20th PM⁉️
$NEE - 20th PM 📉[Puts]
$LMT - 20th PM📉[Puts]
$RTX - 20th PM📈[Calls]
$SKX - 20th AH 📉[Puts or Strangle]
$NFLX - 20th AH📈[Calls]⭐
$SIX - 20th PM/AH?📈[Calls or Strangles]
$BA - 21st PM📈[Calls]⭐
$SAVE - 21st PM/AH?📈[Calls]
$ORLY - 21st PM/AH?📈[Calls]
$MSFT - 21st AH📈[Calls]
$EBAY - 21st AH📉[Puts or Strangles]
$CMG 21st AH📈[Calls or Strangles]
$KO Estimated 21st📈[Calls]⭐
$AAL - 22nd PM📈[Calls or Strangles]⭐
$T - 22nd PM📈[Calls]
$INTC 22nd AH📈[Calls]⭐ 🔥🚀🌾Gold/Silver🌾🚀🔥 $AGC - 2x silver. Aka silver -1% AGC -2%. This is a day or swing trade. Depreciates $SLV - Long term silver hold $JNUG - 2x Gold. Same as AGC but for gold $NUGT/$GLD - Long term gold holds 🔮BET AGAINST THE MARKET🔮 $SPXS - 3X Inverse of SPY [The overall market] Spy +1% SPXS -3%. Spy -3% SPXS +9% [top 500 companies]🐻🐻 $SQQQ - Same as SPXS except top 100 companies🐻🐻 $VXX - Fear index/Volatility Index. This goes up with market feaunsurity. USUALLY inverses $SPY ⚖UPCOMING FDA INFO⚖ $BHC - FDA NEWS ANYDAY
$LPCN - FDA NEWS ANYDAY
$FBIO - FDA Oct 10th [same drug as TRVN]⭐
$ATXI - Oct 10th [same drug as TRVN]⭐
$SPPI - Oct 24th
$KALA - Oct 30th
$MRK - Oct 30th
$SUPN - Nov 8th ⭐
$ADMP - Nov 15th⭐
$ALKS - Nov 15th
$MYL - Nov 16th
$EIGR - Nov 20th
$LQDA - Nov 24th
🙏 I never intended to make any money from this group. All I truthfully wanted was a community I LOVED! If you choose to donate after a big win or to support my work; it is GREATLY appreciated. [Like too much to put into words lol] If you do donate please PM me; to let me know incase I miss it!🙏 ❤🖤💙💚🤎💛🧡💜🤍
My Links:
⭐Cashapp: $Hamstackz⭐
⭐Venmo: $JDH3703⭐
⭐paypal.me/PhillyDiamondhands⭐
Thanks you once again. I couldn't do this without all the support and kindness from this community!
submitted by Philly19111 to PhillyStockTelegram [link] [comments]

10/14 Daily Watchlist. Once again posted on the FREE TELEGRAM

10/14 DAILY WATCHLIST
[P.S. Only enter positions you feel the most comfortable with. Your money is your soldier only send him into the battle you think you'll win. Some of these I have taken positions. Some I am looking to take positions. I've posted how many shares I own of what multiple times ]
PLEASE HEDGE your long holds. For essentially pennies you can come out on a bloody day fine!
🔑KEY🔑
[💎-Long time gold][⁉️-Could go both ways][🚀-I think this is gonna shoot up][🔥-This imo is gonna be a fire stock to make money off of just dont get dumped on][⚠️-Already ran a bit be careful][👀-Watching this one closely][⭐- Huge Catalyst or info]
PRIMARY FOCUSES: $SOLO⭐ $LQDA $ADMP $SESN $UEC $ATXI $MGM⭐ $CLSK $PLUG $PLAY
🚀💸PENNYS💸🚀
$LQDA - Mass puts were bought than a huge stop loss raid on NO NEWS. SUPER OVERSOLD. Looking to swing this as a potential gap up comes
$ATXI - Huge over reaction sell off to FDA update about their drug. The trials were GOOD! The FDA just expects some stuff. This is catching a falling knife but I believe support was found at $4.50-$4.56. $3.80 looking like Support Resistance $4.75 than a MASSIVE gap up to fill👀🔥🚀
$UEC - Uranium mine. Its only a matter of time until Algo's pick up on this and it runs heavily. 9Daily/4hr MACD 🐮👀🔥🚀
$ADMP - Cup & Handle 🐮 ⭐FDA Nov 15th.FDA Likey Approved.⭐GOLDEN CROSS on the 4hr⭐ Daily MACD 🐮 4Hr MACD 🐻Support: $0.74/ $0.87/$0.93 Gap up to $1.02/$1.14 after that the world may never know🔥🚀👀⚠️💎
$SESN - ⭐4th Q Bio news ANYDAY now. ⭐ Support $1.01/$1.25 Resistances $1.38/ $1.44/$1.50🔥🚀👀💎
$PRTY - Halloween is coming up. Daily MACD BREACHING🐮 4hr MACD🐻 This is a constant pump and dump stock. Was $5-7 all last year. Support $1.85/$2.15/ $2.40 Resistance $3.80🔥
$KOS - ⭐Reorganized there debt⭐ I honestly can see $1.75-$2 shortly. $1 is a HEAVY support. 👀🔥🚀
$SOLO - Decending Triangle broke out 🐮Quarterly/Daily/ 4hr MACD 🐮GODLY Support: $2.36-$2.45/$2.58. Resistances: $2.87/ $2.95/$3/ $3.14. ⭐US Manufacturing Location PR by EoY.⭐🔥👀💎
$GRIL - This company is undervalued in my eyes. Newish emerging fast "healthy" food. Great concept with little to no competition.Support $1.40/$1.54 Resistance $1.60/$1.67/$1.72 ⭐Float is legit NANO sized. I truthfully see $5-7 by next year on this.[LONG]🔥🚀👀💎
💰Honorable Mentions💰
$NOK - Big 5g provider globally. Honestly think this is being slept one and should move up by EoY to $5+.Daily MACD Daily🐮 👀💎
$NAK - Mine has been waiting for approval for 10+ years. Trump tweeting about it. MASSIVE float [BAD]. If somehow it gets approved this is gonna jet to $4-6💎⁉️
$XELA - Small position here. Could gap up to $0.45-$0.48
$IDEX - Some PR dropping. I suspect earnings is gonna make this run up heavily [Nov 6th]
$RIOT/$MARA -⭐ ONLY if Bitcoin continues to run up.⭐
💰Non-Pennys💰
⭐SPAC companies are blank check companies looking to merge. If the merge FAILS you are reimbursed $10.⭐
$MGM - One of my classic picks has RETURNED! Earnings. Oct 29th⭐. VERY strong support at $18.08/$20.54. Resistance $21.71/$21.92/$22.25. I suspect this will be the last earning to have worry about. This should EASILY be $30-40 in the next 3-5years with the expanding to Japan + BETMGM👀🔥🚀💎
$JETS - Airline ETF. With the fed and uncle JPOW 3rd of his name pumping airlines this could zoom zoom zoom to the moon moon moon
$SPWR - Solar power is BOOMING. This has been uptrending for awhile. 4hDaily MACD 🐮 Support $13.28/$15.43 Resistances $17.15. Daily Slight OVERBOUGHT👀🔥🚀🚀
$PLUG - Alt energy is a thing of the future! Dont expect the lowest level support to he broken.4hr MACD looking to setup Support $15.70/$16.43[Load zone][LONG]🔥🚀👀💎
$KIRK - Cup and Handle! Support $7.41/ $8.77/$10.16⁉️ Resistances $11.87. Daily/4hr MACD🐮 ⭐4hr GOLDEN CROSS 9/18⭐Suspect earnings get SMASHED. Daily/4hr Slightly OVERBOUGHT [LONG]👀🔥🚀⚠️⚠️⚠️
$MCAC - [SPAC] ⭐PLAYBOY⭐ is going public through them. Sheerly off the name.🔥💎🚀👀
$CLSK - Just like PLUG the uptrend is insane. ⭐ $9 Offering⭐Almost NO DEBT! Support $7.98/$9.55. This should gap back to $10.91+ when the offering closes. ☠SABBY IS IN THIS STOCK☠👀🔥🚀

$PLAY - I'm bullish as a bull can be for next Q earnings! Support $13.86/ $14.55 ⭐4hr GOLDEN CROSS coming Wed/Thur⭐Daily MACD 🐮/🐻 HUGE Gap up potential to $19/$20. I'd put moneyon earnings being beaten December🔥
$SPAQ - [SPAC] ⭐MERGER VOTE END OF OCT⭐4hr GOLDEN CROSS⭐I see $25 EoY. Daily MACD 🐮 4hr MACD🐻 Support $11.90/ $12.99 Resistances $15/ $15.55/ $16.05. Fisker is a PR machine.🔥🚀👀💎
$DBX - 5years of constant revenue growth. Huge inverse H&S. Wedge broke out bullish. Daily/Wkly MACD🐮Support $18.74/ $19.10 / $19.58. Resistance $20.77/$21.29 /$22.76 Gap up to $23.48👀🔥🚀💎
$LCA - [SPAC] Merging with Golden Nugget[gambling]. Should easily hit $20-$25 in the next 4-6weeks. 💎
$SQ - ⭐1% of their ENTIRE company is now in BTC [50m]⭐ this means if BTC goes up it directly benefits them. Not to mention $SQ is just a great long. [LONG]💎👀🔥🚀
$LMND - ⭐90% of their customers are Millennials opening insurance their first time. [This shows HUGE potential long term growth!] [LONG]💎
$NEE - ⭐4:1 Split could run.Think AAPL & TSLA. [LONG]⚠️💎👀
$JWN - Daily MACD🐮4hr MACD🐻 Godly Support $11.70/$12.90 Resistance $14.22 [LONG]💎
🤑Notable Earnings🤑
OCTOBER
$BAC 14th PM📈[Calls]⭐ $WFC - 14th PM⁉️ $PYPL Estimated 18th ⁉️ $TUP Estimated 20th📈[Calls] $LOGI Estimated 20th📉[Puts] $LRN - 20th PM/AH?📈[Calls]⭐ $TXN - 20th PM/AH?📈[Calls] $SNAP - 20th PM📉[Puts or Strangle] $HOG - 20th PM⁉️ $NEE - 20th PM 📉[Puts] $LMT - 20th PM📉[Puts] $RTX - 20th PM📈[Calls] $SKX - 20th AH 📉[Puts or Strangle] $NFLX - 20th AH📈[Calls]⭐ $SIX - 20th PM/AH?📈[Calls or Strangles] $BA - 21st PM📈[Calls]⭐ $SAVE - 21st PM/AH?📈[Calls] $ORLY - 21st PM/AH?📈[Calls] $MSFT - 21st AH📈[Calls] $EBAY - 21st AH📉[Puts or Strangles] $CMG 21st AH📈[Calls or Strangles] $KO Estimated 21st📈[Calls]⭐ $AAL - 22nd PM📈[Calls or Strangles]⭐ $T - 22nd PM📈[Calls] $INTC 22nd AH📈[Calls]⭐ 🔥🚀🌾Gold/Silver🌾🚀🔥 $AGC - 2x silver. Aka silver -1% AGC -2%. This is a day or swing trade. Depreciates
$SLV - Long term silver hold
$JNUG - 2x Gold. Same as AGC but for gold
$NUGT/$GLD - Long term gold holds
🔮BET AGAINST THE MARKET🔮
$SPXS - 3X Inverse of SPY [The overall market] Spy +1% SPXS -3%. Spy -3% SPXS +9% [top 500 companies]🐻🐻
$SQQQ - Same as SPXS except top 100 companies🐻🐻
$VXX - Fear index/Volatility Index. This goes up with market feaunsurity. USUALLY inverses $SPY
⚖UPCOMING FDA INFO⚖ $SPPI - Oct 24th $KALA - Oct 30th $MRK - Oct 30th $SUPN - Nov 8th ⭐ $ADMP - Nov 15th⭐ $ALKS - Nov 15th $MYL - Nov 16th $EIGR - Nov 20th $LQDA - Nov 24th🙏 None of this would be possible without the love and support of you guys! I appreciate each and EVERYONE of you! This group will ALWAYS remain free but if you'd like to donate for my work here ya go. [If you do PLEASE let me know in case I miss it and so I can THANK YOU! 🙏 ❤🖤💙💚🤎💛🧡💜🤍
My Links: ⭐Cashapp: $Hamstackz⭐ ⭐Venmo: $JDH3703⭐ ⭐paypal.me/PhillyDiamondhands⭐
Thanks you once again. I couldn't do this without EVERY single one of yours constant support
newsfilter.io/latest/news
USE THIS SITE. IT IS YOUR BREAD AND BUTTER. If you see something share it!
submitted by Philly19111 to PhillyStockTelegram [link] [comments]

What is your Bitcoin Maturity Score?

How many of the 25 steps in the bitcoin rabbit hole have you mastered? Be honest. Count how many and divide your score by 2.5.
Your Score: <5: learner / weak hands 5-7: hodler 8-9: mature 10: orange pilled
Post your result below.
The Bitcoin Journey: 1. That (log) price chart! 🧐 2. Digital scarce? 🤔 3. Satochi 4. Blockchain 5. Alts 6. Mining, halvings, diff adjustment 7. How do I get it? 8. Wallets, keys, seeds, exchanges 9. Crypto Twitter 10. Fees, hashrate, mempool, txs 11. Money, inflation, central banks 12. Stocks, S&P500, 13. Charts, TA, RSI, MA’s, triangles, patterns 🤓 14. Keynes, Austrian economics 15. Bull/bear market, trading, win/lose 16. Network effects & adoption 17. Gold, Silver, real estate 18. Full node, electrum pvt server 19. Evangelize / orange pilled 💊 20. All-in / auto-dca 21. Immaculate conception 22. NGU, game theory 23. Cosmic renaissance 24. Opsec, multisig 25. Maximalism
Let me know your score & what’s missing from your journey. Also accepting suggestions for better results categories/ descriptions.
submitted by mbrookson to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

10/18 Weekly Watchlist Been on the telegram for almost 2 days boys

10/18 WEEKLY WATCHLIST
[P.S. Only enter positions you feel the most comfortable with. Your money is your soldier only send him into the battle you think you'll win. Some of these I have taken positions. Some I am looking to take positions. I've posted how many shares I own of what multiple times ]
⭐BIG weeks for earnings coming up +Election news! Be prepared for crazy volatility!⭐
🔑KEY🔑
[💎-Long time gold][⁉️-Could go both ways][🚀-I think this is gonna shoot up][🔥-This imo is gonna be a fire stock to make money off of just dont get dumped on][⚠️-Already ran a bit be careful][👀-Watching this one closely][⭐- Huge Catalyst or info]
PRIMARY FOCUSES: $MGM⭐ $ADMP $SESN $JMIA ⭐ $GRIL $FSI $LCA $ETTX⭐ $CRBP $NOK
🚀💸PENNYS💸🚀
$ETTX - ⭐Solid pipeline. Big insider buys. Presentations Oct 22st-25th⭐ Huge gap to fill to $2.50/$2.75/ $3.05. Support $2.05👀🔥🚀⚠️
$CRBP - ⭐200k in shares bought on the buzzer! Either shorts really covered hard or SOMEONE knows something. Support $1.07👀🔥🚀
$FSI - SMASHED earnings. SUPER SMALL float. Already ran a bit but I can see $4 coming potentially. HIGH RISK👀🔥🚀⚠️
$HMHC - Earnings Oct 28th. $2.50 Calls I may grab some. Looks like a medium risk high reward play👀🔥🚀
$UEC - Barcoding Uranium mine. Its only a matter of time until Algo's pick up on this and it runs heavily. 4hr RSI approaching oversold! Daily/4hr MACD🐮/🐻 👀🔥🚀
$ADMP - Cup & Handle 🐮 ⭐FDA Nov 15th.FDA Likey Approved. ⭐GOLDEN CROSS on the 4hr⭐ 4hr MACD are🐮Support: $0.74/ $0.87 Gap up to $1.02/$1.14 after that the world may never know🔥🚀👀⚠️💎
$SESN - ⭐4th Q Bio news ANYDAY now. ⭐4hr MACD 🐮 Support $1.01/$1.16 Resistances $1.38/ $1.44/$1.50🔥🚀👀💎
$PRTY - Halloween is coming up. 4hr MACD🐮 This is a constant pump and dump stock. Was $5-7 all last year. Support $1.85/$2.15/ $2.40 Resistance $2.62/$2.82🔥
$SOLO - Quarterly MACD 🐮⭐ 4hr GOLDEN CROSS⭐Support: $2.58/$2.90 Resistances: $3.20/$3.34⭐US Manufacturing Location PR by November⭐🔥👀💎⚠️
$GRIL - Once the volume picks up on this its gonna FLY! This company is undervalued in my eyes. Newish emerging fast "healthy" food. Great concept with little to no competition⭐4hr GOLDEN CROSS coming⭐.Daily / 4hr MACD🐮 Support $1.40/$1.54 Resistance $1.67/$1.72 ⭐New investor email for guidance I truthfully see $5-7 by next year on this.[LONG]🔥🚀👀💎
💰Honorable Mentions💰
$NOK - ⭐Earnings Oct 29th⭐4g contract for the moon QUITE LITERALLY⭐Big 5g provider globally. Honestly think this is being slept one and should move up by EoY to $5+.Daily/4hr MACD Daily🐮 💎
$NAK - Mine has been waiting for approval for 10+ years. Trump tweeting about it. MASSIVE float [BAD]. If somehow it gets approved this is gonna jet to $4-6💎⁉️
$IDEX - Some PR dropping. I suspect earnings is gonna make this run up heavily [Nov 6th] ⭐Earning Nov 9th
$RIOT/$MARA -⭐ ONLY if Bitcoin continues to run up.⭐
💰Non-Pennys💰
$VVPR - ⭐$8.50 offering. PT Updated to $40.Honestly $8-9 entry seems great. Should gap up to $11 when the offering closes sometime in the next week.💎👀
$LCA - [SPAC] Merging with the Golden Nugget.⭐ 100k block buy at buzzer [$1.5m]. Descending triangle broke out🐮 Support $13.60 Resistance $14.74/$15.30 gap to $16.50. This could very easily hit $25-30 EoY👀🔥🚀💎
$JMIA - 4hdaily OVERBOUGHT. Huge cup and handle. I expect a pull back before re-entering. Earnings Nov 12th⭐ Amazon of Europe and Africa! Support $10.20/$12.13 Resistance $15.67. Huge gap to $17/$20 to fill👀🔥🚀⚠️💎
$MGM - One of my classic picks has RETURNED! Earnings Oct 29th⭐.⭐GOLDEN CROSS on 4hr and DAILY TODAY⭐4hr MACD 🐮VERY strong support $18.08/$20.54. Resistance $21.71/$21.92/$22.25. I suspect this will be the last earning to have worry about. 1h4hr HAMMER DOJI🔨This should EASILY be $30-40 in the next 3-5years with the expanding to Japan + BETMGM👀🔥🚀💎
$ACI - ⭐ Declared they will providing a dividend. Also won a bid for new locations. Earnings Oct 20th.⭐ I suspect a blowout. This should be a SOLID long term growth hold!🔥🚀
$PLUG - Alt energy is a thing of the future! Dont expect the lowest level support to he broken. 4hr RSI approaching Oversold ! Daily MACD 🐻Support $15.70/ $16.43[Load zone][LONG]🔥🚀👀💎
$MCAC - [SPAC] ⭐PLAYBOY⭐ is going public through them. Sherly off the name.🔥💎🚀
$CLSK - Just like PLUG the uptrend is insane. ⭐ 4hr GOLDEN CROSS ⭐Almost NO DEBT! Support $7.98/$9.55. This should gap back to $10.91+ when the offering closes. ☠SABBY IS IN THIS STOCK☠👀🔥🚀
$PLAY - I'm bullish as a bull can be for next Q earnings! Support $13.86/ $14.55 /$15.90. Breaks $16.33 it flys⭐4hr GOLDEN CROSS coming⭐Daily MACD BREACHING 🐮HUGE Gap up potential to $19/$20. I'd put money on earnings being beaten December🔥
$SPAQ - [SPAC]Cup and handle. Handle looks finished⭐MERGER VOTE END OF OCT⭐4hr GOLDEN CROSS⭐RSI Approaching Oversold! see $25 EoY. Support $11.90/ $12.99 Resistances $15/ $15.55/ $16.05. Fisker is a PR machine.🔥🚀👀💎
🤑Notable Earnings🤑
OCTOBER
$TUP Estimated 20th📈[Calls] $LOGI Estimated 20th📉[Puts] $LRN - 20th PM/AH?📈[Calls]⭐ $TXN - 20th PM/AH?📈[Calls] $SNAP - 20th PM📉[Puts or Strangle] $HOG - 20th PM⁉️ $NEE - 20th PM 📉[Puts] $LMT - 20th PM📉[Puts] $RTX - 20th PM📈[Calls] $SKX - 20th AH 📉[Puts or Strangle] $NFLX - 20th AH📈[Puts]⭐ $SIX - 20th PM/AH?📈[Calls or Strangles] $BA - 21st PM📈[Calls]⭐ $SAVE - 21st PM/AH?📈[Calls] $ORLY - 21st PM/AH?📈[Calls] $MSFT - 21st AH📈[Calls] $EBAY - 21st AH📉[Puts or Strangles] $CMG 21st AH📈[Calls or Strangles] $KO Estimated 21st📈[Calls]⭐ $AAL - 22nd PM📈[Calls or Strangles]⭐ $T - 22nd PM📈[Calls] $INTC 22nd AH📈[Calls]⭐
🔥🚀🌾Gold/Silver🌾🚀🔥
$AGC - 2x silver. Aka silver -1% AGC -2%. This is a day or swing trade. Depreciates
$SLV - Long term silver hold
$JNUG - 2x Gold. Same as AGC but for gold
$NUGT/$GLD - Long term gold holds
🔮BET AGAINST THE MARKET🔮
$SPXS - 3X Inverse of SPY [The overall market] Spy +1% SPXS -3%. Spy -3% SPXS +9% [top 500 companies]🐻🐻
$SQQQ - Same as SPXS except top 100 companies🐻🐻
$VXX - Fear index/Volatility Index. This goes up with market feaunsurity. USUALLY inverses $SPY
⚖UPCOMING FDA INFO⚖
$SPPI - Oct 24th $KALA - Oct 30th $MRK - Oct 30th $SUPN - Nov 8th ⭐ $ADMP - Nov 15th⭐ $ALKS - Nov 15th $MYL - Nov 16th $EIGR - Nov 20th $LQDA - Nov 24th
🙏 None of this would be possible without the love and support of you guys! I appreciate each and EVERYONE of you! This group will ALWAYS remain free but if you'd like to donate for my work here ya go. Donations do help an exponential amount but are not require!💚[If you do PLEASE let me know in case I miss it and so I can THANK YOU! 🙏 ❤🖤💙💚🤎💛🧡💜🤍
My Links: ⭐Cashapp: $Hamstackz⭐ ⭐Venmo: $JDH3703⭐ ⭐paypal.me/PhillyDiamondhands⭐
Thanks you once again. I couldn't do this without EVERY single one of yours constant support
submitted by Philly19111 to PhillyStockTelegram [link] [comments]

Comparing Bitcoin to Investing Early in Apple, Google, Facebook, Amazon

The CEO of Nasdaq-listed billion-dollar company Microstrategy has made a strong bull case for bitcoin. He says there is a $250 trillion ocean of assets looking for the ideal store a value right now and bitcoin is a better store of value than gold or tech stocks, so “a lot of that monetary energy is going to flow from the asset ocean into the crypto pond.”

Comparing Bitcoin to Investing Early in Apple, Google, Facebook, Amazon

In a webcast with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, aired last week, Microstrategy CEO Michael Saylor outlined a highly bullish case for bitcoin’s price. The Nasdaq-listed Microstrategy recently invested $425 million in bitcoin as its primary reserve asset.
Saylor began by explaining that he has always been a big tech investor. “The thing about technology is figuring out the thing that’s going to eat the world. If you’re right, own it, hold it, and wait,” he advised. The CEO gave the example of Apple, Google, Amazon, and Facebook, emphasizing repeatedly that it does not matter when you bought those tech stocks. “The truth of the matter is if you’d bought Google, Apple, Amazon, or Facebook at any point between 2010 and 2020 … I think it’s impossible to have lost money at any point for the decade … your investment mistake would be trying to time the market on those things.”
The Microstrategy CEO added: “Bitcoin is the first software network in the history of the world that can pull monetary energy, so these bitcoiners have figured out something that is really a thing of beauty and extraordinary value. They are pulling pure monetary energy on a network.” He elaborated:
"If I take $100 million and I put it into bitcoin, it could sit there for a decade like in a battery. It won’t bleed out. You’re not losing 2% to 4% a year and I can put it in the palm of my hand and I can move it around the planet for a few dollars in a few minutes and we have never in the history of the world figured that out."

Bitcoin Is Not So Volatile

One classic objection investors have to investing in bitcoin is its volatility. Speaking on the subject, Saylor said he has been looking at the volatility of different assets over the last three, four, and five months. He looked at 30-year Treasuries, 10-year Treasuries, the NASDAQ, the Russell 2000, gold, silver, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, and more. After comparing their volatility to bitcoin, Saylor concluded:
"My unscientific view is on every single day at least half of those assets are more volatile than bitcoin. And on a lot of volatile days, I’ve seen 80% to 90% of them be more volatile than bitcoin."
“So I think there’s a historic narrative/belief. People think they know this is volatile but in fact, it’s not looking that volatile to me over the past three months. I don’t think over the next decade it’s going to have the same characteristics of volatility that it had over the last decade,” Saylor said.
The Microstrategy CEO proceeded to discuss how investors are using Apple’s stock as their store of value. “People are literally using Apple’s stock as a store of value because it’s deflationary. Apple is buying it back and they think Apple is not going anywhere and they’re desperate to flee [from] currency.” However, he pointed out that “Apple is more volatile than bitcoin for the past three months.”

Bitcoin Is a Better Store of Value than Apple’s Stock or Gold

Besides Apple’s stock, gold is still investors’ favorite store of value. However, Saylor explained that neither are as good as bitcoin as a store of value.
“The truth is Apple’s stock is not scarce. The executive team can and will eventually print more and if that doesn’t dilute you then they’ve got regulatory risk, competitive risk, [and] execution risk — a lot of moving parts … that’s why they’re not good over the long term,” he detailed. As for gold, he said: “if you put $100 million into gold and the gold miners print 2% to 3% more a year, let’s say 2% more, well, over 100 years you lose 88% of your purchasing power.”
The CEO explained that these stores of value worked in the past because there was no alternative. However, things have changed. “In the year 2020, you have a choice, you have a digital gold,” he declared. “They cannot make any more. Bitcoin miners are the friends of bitcoin owners. They’re not the enemy of bitcoin owners.” He explained that to store $100 million for 100 years, you will lose 85% of it under the best case if you put it in gold. “Under the likely case, you lose it all because the bank will fail, the country will fail, [or] somebody will seize it,” he claimed.
Saylor presented bitcoin as the best solution: “The reason that the bitcoin maximalists … are passionate and religious about this is because for the first time in human history you can take all of your wealth and your life force. You can put it into an asset. You can keep the keys. You can take custody of your million dollars, your hundred thousand dollars. No government, no bank can take it away from you. There’s nobody to tell you you can’t own your life force, and if you have hopes and aspirations for your family, for your religion, for your life, then you have the power to achieve those hopes and aspirations without asking the permission of a bank or a government or politician.”
The Microstrategy CEO then spoke about the trillions of dollars currently in alternative assets that function as stores of value, including gold, technology stocks, and bonds. He proclaimed:
THERE’S A $250 TRILLION OCEAN OF ASSETS. THEY ARE LOOKING FOR THE IDEAL STORE OF VALUE RIGHT NOW.
Maintaining that bitcoin is a better store of value than other assets he previously described, he emphasized: “bitcoin is digital gold. It’s better gold than gold and it’s a better store of value than big tech.” He believes that as investors understand this, “a lot of that monetary energy is going to flow from the asset ocean into the crypto pond and everybody that makes the transition is going to benefit.”
submitted by williamsouza10 to u/williamsouza10 [link] [comments]

The decoupling is coming

The reason shitcoins have been rallying while bitcoin trends sideways is because right now it is a risk-on environment, as evidenced by stocks hitting all time highs.
If bitcoin was a risk asset it would also be rallying.
This might mean bitcoin is showing its first signs of shifting into the risk-off asset segment.
This is what bitcoin should be doing. In preparation for further economic turmoil through the rest of 2020 and into 2021 bitcoin is morphing into a safe haven risk-off asset.
As stock markets roll over later this year expect altcoins to fall alongside them while bitcoin rallies.
The decoupling is at hand.
Edit: some people see volatility and disregard the idea bitcoin could be a safe haven. Look at the charts, gold is rising in preparation for a huge bull market, silver is volatile but following gold, bitcoin is even more volatile but following silver. Just because silver tanked in march does not mean it won't follow gold to new all time highs, and similarly just because bitcoin tanked in march does not mean it won't follow silver to new all time highs.
Gold will lead, silver will follow gold with more volatility, and bitcoin will follow silver with even more volatility.
Gold will 5x, silver will 10x and bitcoin will 50x over the next 3 years.
submitted by slvbtc to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Ely Gold Royalties Bottoming Out

http://lists.apisbull.com/cgi-bin/dada/mail.cgi/archive/activitynotices/20200922145519/

Just bought Ely Gold Royalties (ELYGF) at $0.8975 today. Didn't even plan on it. I was going through a list of gold and silver stocks and Ely Gold on the charts was pretty low on the stochastics and money flow for daily and weekly.
See the daily chart
See the weekly chart
In my next video I'll explain in detail why I bought and sold my latest transactions over the past two weeks.
As predicted silver and Bitcoin are falling. Although I see a few up days for silver but the down trend will continue for a couple of months. As for Bitcoin I see a down turn whether slow or fast down to $8,5000.00
Be sure to check out my
Youtube channel
Twitter
Trading History
Newsletter archives are located at http://lists.apisbull.com/cgi-bin/dada/mail.cgi/list/activitynotices/
submitted by ApisBullTrading to u/ApisBullTrading [link] [comments]

For Trading August 23th

For Trading August 13th
TSLA $1,554 +180 (13%)
GOLD / SILVER Recover
CSCO & LYFT MISS #s
Today’s market got off to a slightly higher start on the combination of CPI data and the futures, with all major indexes higher. The NASDAQ was the leader, by far, gaining almost the same point value as the DJIA on an index 60% smaller. At the close the DJIA was +289.93 (1.05%), NASDAQ +229.42 (2.13%), S&P 500 +46.66 (1.4%), the Russell +8.15 (.52%), and the DJ Transports +46.57 (.43%). Market internals were weak with the NYSE only 9:5 UP and the NASDAQ 9:7, and lower volume than yesterday. The DJIA was the same as yesterday, 23:7 but almost the entire gain was in 4 names, AAPL +100DP’s, HD & UNH +46 each, and MSFT +40DP’s while on the downside we had BA-32 and AXP -10DP’s.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also did this video over the weekend on a day-trade, (actually 2) that I made in AAPL on Friday. I think it’s highly informative as a guide to under what conditions these kind of trades in expiring options make sense. The link is https://youtu.be/qIV0G-hP3aM Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/3T8DnUEKNaY SECTORS: We didn’t have much corporate news today but after the close we had earnings from both CSCO and LYFT with both reporting losses and giving poor guidance. LYFT in particular was just full of bad news telling shareholders that if the Court of Appeals did not strike down the State of California’s ruling that requires their drivers to be considered employees, that they would suspend all operations in Calif., 16% of their total rideshare business. The stock, already down from its high of $88.60 traded as low as $29.75 and is currently $30.10 -.42. Cisco (CSCO) reported a loss and gave poor guidance and this is the glaring difference between “Old” tech and “New” tech. While CSCO has fallen from an all-time high of $76, and a recent high of $58 to close today $48.10 + .91, it traded down to $44.77 and is $45.04 -3.05 or 6.34%. “New” tech stocks like AMD, NVDA, and AVGO are all at new all-time highs and up triple-digits this year. The biggest news of the late day was the announcement that TESLA (TSLA) declared a 5:1 stock split. While this is really just straight arithmetic, it does create some demand for the shares now, since when the stock split becomes effective at the end of August you would have 5 times the shares at 1/5 of the price. But it does promote the purchase of “round lots” as opposed to “odd lots.” Does it really increase demand? Not really, but most stocks (like AAPL) do seem to rise on the news. TSLA certainly did, closing $1,554,76 +180.37 (13.1%). FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +.54, BGS +.53, FLO +.34, CPB +1.19, CAG +.75, MDLZ +.83, KHC +.72, CALM +.23, JJSF +.39, SAFM +.35, HRL +.62, SJM +2.25, PPC -.15, KR +.24, and PBJ $33.89 +.57 (1.69%).
BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +3.28, ABBV +2.63, REGN +13.49, ISRG +8.09, GILD +.74, MYL -.34, TEVA -.03, VRTX +8.04, BHC -.23, INCY +1.24, ICPT +.86, LABU +.41, and IBB $134.45 +2.57 (1.95%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.03, CGC +.32, CRON +.20, GWPH -.80, ACB -.17, NBEV -.01, CURLF +.23, KERN -.16, and MJ $12.78 +.12 (.95%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT + .48, GD -3.60, TXT -.49, NOC -3.12, BWXT -.72, TDY +.23, RTX +.32, and ITA $170.92 -1.22 (.71%).
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.02, JWN +.05, KSS +.19, DDS -1.69, WMT +1.65, TGT +2.88, TJX +.01, RL -.40, UAA -.08, LULU +9.38, TPR +.17, CPRI +.05, and XRT $51.06 +.40 (.79%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +27.45, AMZN +77.33, AAPL +14.99, FB +3.87, NFLX +8.32, NVDA +22.82, MSFT +5.52, TSLA +190.61, BABA +6.78, BIDU +2.05, CMG +12.05, CAT -.37, BA -4.34, DIS +1.31, XLK $113.47 +2.09 (1.88%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS +1.03, JPM -.82, BAC -.21, MS +.57, C -.41, PNC -.47, AIG -1.28, TRV -1.06, AXP -1.59, V +.93, and XLF $25.24 -.07 (.28%).
OIL, $42.67 +1.06. Oil was higher in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning on news of production cutbacks from Iraq. The stocks were HIGHER with XLE $38.58 +.38 (.99%).
GOLD $1,949 +2.70 was a dramatic sell-off taking the gold down as low as $1,874.00 before a rally back to $1,961. While I like the gold down here, I will have to see how it trades for a day or two. I am still a bull on the metal.
BITCOIN: closed $11,665 +230. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 yesterday. We had added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97, but sold 250 shares today @ $13.93. GBTC closed $13.11 +.56 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

For Trading August 13th

For Trading August 13th
TSLA $1,554 +180 (13%)
GOLD / SILVER Recover
CSCO & LYFT MISS #s
Today’s market got off to a slightly higher start on the combination of CPI data and the futures, with all major indexes higher. The NASDAQ was the leader, by far, gaining almost the same point value as the DJIA on an index 60% smaller. At the close the DJIA was +289.93 (1.05%), NASDAQ +229.42 (2.13%), S&P 500 +46.66 (1.4%), the Russell +8.15 (.52%), and the DJ Transports +46.57 (.43%). Market internals were weak with the NYSE only 9:5 UP and the NASDAQ 9:7, and lower volume than yesterday. The DJIA was the same as yesterday, 23:7 but almost the entire gain was in 4 names, AAPL +100DP’s, HD & UNH +46 each, and MSFT +40DP’s while on the downside we had BA-32 and AXP -10DP’s.
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/3T8DnUEKNaY
SECTORS: We didn’t have much corporate news today but after the close we had earnings from both CSCO and LYFT with both reporting losses and giving poor guidance. LYFT in particular was just full of bad news telling shareholders that if the Court of Appeals did not strike down the State of California’s ruling that requires their drivers to be considered employees, that they would suspend all operations in Calif., 16% of their total rideshare business. The stock, already down from its high of $88.60 traded as low as $29.75 and is currently $30.10 -.42. Cisco (CSCO) reported a loss and gave poor guidance and this is the glaring difference between “Old” tech and “New” tech. While CSCO has fallen from an all-time high of $76, and a recent high of $58 to close today $48.10 + .91, it traded down to $44.77 and is $45.04 -3.05 or 6.34%. “New” tech stocks like AMD, NVDA, and AVGO are all at new all-time highs and up triple-digits this year. The biggest news of the late day was the announcement that TESLA (TSLA) declared a 5:1 stock split. While this is really just straight arithmetic, it does create some demand for the shares now, since when the stock split becomes effective at the end of August you would have 5 times the shares at 1/5 of the price. But it does promote the purchase of “round lots” as opposed to “odd lots.” Does it really increase demand? Not really, but most stocks (like AAPL) do seem to rise on the news. TSLA certainly did, closing $1,554,76 +180.37 (13.1%). FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +.54, BGS +.53, FLO +.34, CPB +1.19, CAG +.75, MDLZ +.83, KHC +.72, CALM +.23, JJSF +.39, SAFM +.35, HRL +.62, SJM +2.25, PPC -.15, KR +.24, and PBJ $33.89 +.57 (1.69%).
BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +3.28, ABBV +2.63, REGN +13.49, ISRG +8.09, GILD +.74, MYL -.34, TEVA -.03, VRTX +8.04, BHC -.23, INCY +1.24, ICPT +.86, LABU +.41, and IBB $134.45 +2.57 (1.95%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.03, CGC +.32, CRON +.20, GWPH -.80, ACB -.17, NBEV -.01, CURLF +.23, KERN -.16, and MJ $12.78 +.12 (.95%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT + .48, GD -3.60, TXT -.49, NOC -3.12, BWXT -.72, TDY +.23, RTX +.32, and ITA $170.92 -1.22 (.71%).
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.02, JWN +.05, KSS +.19, DDS -1.69, WMT +1.65, TGT +2.88, TJX +.01, RL -.40, UAA -.08, LULU +9.38, TPR +.17, CPRI +.05, and XRT $51.06 +.40 (.79%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +27.45, AMZN +77.33, AAPL +14.99, FB +3.87, NFLX +8.32, NVDA +22.82, MSFT +5.52, TSLA +190.61, BABA +6.78, BIDU +2.05, CMG +12.05, CAT -.37, BA -4.34, DIS +1.31, XLK $113.47 +2.09 (1.88%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS +1.03, JPM -.82, BAC -.21, MS +.57, C -.41, PNC -.47, AIG -1.28, TRV -1.06, AXP -1.59, V +.93, and XLF $25.24 -.07 (.28%).
OIL, $42.67 +1.06. Oil was higher in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning on news of production cutbacks from Iraq. The stocks were HIGHER with XLE $38.58 +.38 (.99%).
GOLD $1,949 +2.70 was a dramatic sell-off taking the gold down as low as $1,874.00 before a rally back to $1,961. While I like the gold down here, I will have to see how it trades for a day or two. I am still a bull on the metal.
BITCOIN: closed $11,665 +230. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 yesterday. We had added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97, but sold 250 shares today @ $13.93. GBTC closed $13.11 +.56 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to options [link] [comments]

The White Dragon : A Canadian Dragon Portfolio

Alright guys, Ive been working on this for a while and a post on here by a guy describing his portfolio here was the final kick in the ass for me to put this together. I started writing this to summarize what Im doing for my friends who are beginners, and also for me to make some sense of it for myself
Hopefully parts of it are useful to you, and also ideally you guys can point out errors or have a suggestion or two. I'm posting this here as opposed to investing or canadianinvestor (blech) because they're just gonna tell me to buy an index fund.
This first section is a preamble describing the Canadian tax situation and why Im doing things the way that I am. Feel free to skip it if you dont care about that. Also, there might be mistake regarding what the laws are here so dont take my word for it and verify it for yourself please.
So here in Canada we have two types of registered accounts (theres actually more but whatver). There is the TFSA "Tax Free Savings Account", and RRSP "Registered Retirement Savings Account"
For the sake of simplicity, from the time you turn 18 you are allowed to deposit 5k (it changes year to year based on inflation etc)in each of them. That "room" accumulates retroactively, so if you haventdone anything and are starting today and you are 30 you have around 60k you can put in each of them. The prevailing wisdom is that you should max out the TFSA first and you'll see why in a minute.

TFSA is post tax deposits, with no capital gains or other taxes applied to selling your securities, dividends or anything else. You can withdraw your gains at any time, and the amount that you withdraw is added to the "room" you have for the next year. So lets say I maxed out my TFSA contributions and I take out 20k today, on January of next year I can put back in 20k plus the 5 or whatever they allow for that year. You can see how powerful this is. Theres a few limitations on what is eligable to be held in the TFSA such as bitcoin/bitcoin ETFs, overseas stocks that arent listed on NYSE, TSX, london and a few others. You can Buy to Open and Sell to Close call and put options as well as write Covered Calls.

The RRSP is pre-tax deposits and is a tax deferred scheme. You deposit to lower your income tax burden (and hopefully drop below a bracket) but once you retire you will be taxed on anything you pull out. Withdrawing early has huge penalties and isnt recommended. You are however allowed to borrow against it for a down payment as a first time home buyer. The strategy with these is that a youngperson entering the workforce is likely to be in a fairly low tax bracket and (hopefully) earns more money as they get older and more skilled so the RRSP has more value the greater your pre-taxincome is. You can also do this Self Directed. Its not relevant to this strategy but I included it for the sake of context.
Non registered accounts ( or any other situation, such as selling commercial real estate etc) is subject to a capital gains tax. In so far as I understand it, you add all your gains and losses up at the end of the year. If its a positive number, you cut that number IN HALF and add it to your regular pre-tax income. So if I made 60k from the dayjob and 20k on my margin account that adds up to 70k that I get taxed on. if its a loss, you carry that forward into the next year. Theres no distinction between long term and short term. Also physical PMs are treated differently and I'll fill that part in later once I have the details down.
The reason why all that babble is important is that my broker Questrade, which isnt as good as IB (the only real other option up here as far as Im aware) has one amazing feature that no other broker has: "Margin Power"
If you have a TFSA and a Margin account with them, you can link them together and have your securities in the TFSA collateralise your Margin account. Essentially, when it comes to the Maintenance Excess of the Margin Account QT doesnt care if its in the TFSA *or* the Margin!
You can see how powerful this is.
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So as you can tell by the title, a lot of this is heavily inspired by Chris Cole's paper "The Allegory of the Hawk and the Serpent". You can read it here: https://www.artemiscm.com/welcome#research
Between it, his interviews and my mediocre options skills at the time my mind was blown. Unfortunately I didnt know how to do the Long Volatility part until after the crash in March but I've since then had nothing but time to scour the internet and learn as much as I could.
The way I interpret this isnt necessarily "what you should have right now", but what abstracted model they were able to backtest that gave them the best performance over the 90 years. Also, a lot of my portfolio I already had before I started trying to build this.
As such my allocations dont match the proportions he gave. Not saying my allocations are better, just showing where they are at this time.
I'm going to describe how I do Long Volatility at the end rather than the beginning since the way *I* do it wont make sense until you see the rest of the portflio.

Physical PMs 22%
I'm not sure wether he intended this to be straight up physical gold or include miners and royalty streaming companies so I will just keep this as physical.
I consider Silver to be a non-expiring call option on gold, so that can live here too. I am actually *very* overweight silver and my strategy is to convert a large portion of it to gold (mostly my bars) to gold as the ratio tightens up.
If youre into crypto, you can arguably say that has a place in this section.
If an ETF makes sense for part of your portfolio, I suggest the Sprott ones such as PHYS. Sprott is an honest business and they actually have the metal they say they have. If you have enough, you can redeem your shares from the Royal Canadian Mint. The only downside is that they dont have an options chain, so you cant sell covered calls etc. Simple enough I suppose.
One thing to bear in mind, there is a double edged sword with this class of assets. They're out of the system, theyre nobody's business but your own and theres no counter party. That unfortunately means that you cant lever against it for margin or sell covered calls etc. You can still buy puts though (more on that later)

Commodity Trend (CTA) 10%
https://youtu.be/tac8sWPZW0w
Patrick Ceresna gave a good presentation on what this strategy is. Until I watched this video I just thought it meant "buy commodities". A real CTA does this with futures also so aside from the way he showed, there are two other ETFs that are worth looking at.
COM - This is an explicit trend following ETF that follows a LONG/FLAT strategy instead of LONG/SHORT on a pile of commodity futures. So if they get a "sell" signal for oil or soybeans they sell what they have and go to cash.
COMT- Holds an assortment of different month futures in different commodities, as well as a *lot* of various related shares in producers. Its almost a one stop shop commodities portfolio. Pays a respectable dividend in December
If you want to break the "rules" of CTA, and include equities theres a few others that are also worth looking at
KOL- This is a coal ETF. The problems with it are that a lot of the holdings dont have much to do with coal. One of them is a tractor company. A lot of the companies are Chinese so theres a bit of a red flag.
Obviously Thermal Coal, the kind used for heating and powerplants isnt in vogue and wont be moving forward...but coking coal is used for steel manufacturing and that ain't going anywhere. The dividend is huge, pays out in December. A very very small position might be worth the risk.
Uranium- I'm in URA because thats the only way for me to get exposure to Kazatoprom (#1 producer), which is 20% of the holdings. The other 20% is Cameco (#2 producer)and then its random stuff.
Other than that I have shares in Denison which seems like its a good business with some interesting projects underway. I'm still studying the uranium space so I dont really have much to say about it of any value.
RSX- Russia large caps. If you dont want to pick between the myriad of undervalued, high dividend paying commodity companies that Russia has then just grab this. It only pays in December but it has a liquid options chain so you can do Covered Calls in the meantime if you want.
NTR- Nutrien, canadian company that was formed when two others merged. They are now the worlds largest potash producer. Pretty good dividend. They have some financial difficulties and the stocks been in a downtrend forever. I feel its a good candidate to watch or sell some puts on.
I'm trying to come up with a way to play agriculture since this new phase we're going to be entering is likely to cause huge food shortages.

EURN and NAT- I got in fairly early on the Tanker hype before it was even hype as a way to short oil but I got greedy and lost a lot of my gains. I pared down my position and I'm staying for the dividend.
If you get an oil sell signal, this might be a way to play that still.

Fixed Income/Bonds 10%

Now, I am not a bond expert but unless youre doing some wacky spreads with futures or whatever... I dont see much reason to buy government debt any more. If you are, youre basically betting that they take rates negative. Raoul Pal of Real Vision is pretty firm in his conviction that this will happen. I know better than to argue with him but I dont see risk/reward as being of much value.
HOWEVER, I found two interesting ETFs that seem to bring something to this portfolio
IVOL- This is run by Nancy Davis, and is comprised of TIPS bonds which are nominally inflation protected (doubt its real inflation but whatever) overlayed with some OTC options that are designed to pay off big if the Fed loses control of the long end of the yield curve, which is what might happen during a real inflation situation. Pays out a decent yield monthly
TAIL- This is a simpler portfolio of 10yr treasuries with ladder of puts on the SPX. Pays quarterly.

Equities 58% (shared with options/volatility below)
This is where it gets interesting, obviously most of this is in mining shares but before I get to those I found some interesting stuff that I'm intending to build up as I pare down my miners when the time comes to start doing that.
VIRT- I cant remember where I saw this, but people were talking about this as a volatility play. Its not perfect, but look at the chart compared to SPY. Its a HFT/market making operation, the wackier things get the more pennies they can scalp. A 4% dividend isnt shabby either.
FUND- This is an interesting closed end fund run by Whitney George, one of the principals at Sprott. He took it with him when he joined the company. Ive read his reports and interviews and I really like his approach to value and investing. He's kind of like if Warren Buffett was a gold bug. Theres 120 holdings in there, mostly small caps and very diverse...chicken factories, ball bearings all kinds of boring ass shit that nobody knows exists. Whats crucial is that most of it "needs to exist". Between him, his family and other people at Sprott they control 40% or so of the shares, so they definitely have skin in the game. Generous dividend.
ZIG- This is a "deep value" strategy fund, run by Tobias Carlisle. He has a fairly simple valuation formula called the Acquirer's Multiple that when he backtested it, is supposed to perform very well. He did an interview with Chris Cole on real Vision where he discusses how Value and Deep Value havent done well recently, but over the last 100 years have proven to be very viable strategies. If we feel that theres a new cycle brewing, then this strategy may work again moving forward.

I want to pause and point out something here, Chris Cole, Nassim Taleb and the guys at Mutiny Fund spend a lot of effort explaining that building a portfolio is a lot like putting together a good basketall team. They need to work together, and pick up each others slack
A lot of the ETFs I'm listing here are in many ways portfolios in and of themselves and are *actively managed*. I specifically chose them because they follow a methodology that I respect but I can't do myself because I dont have the skill, temperament or access to.
The next one is a hidden gem and ties into this. I'm not sure how much more upside there is in this one but man was I surprised.
SII- Sprott Inc. I *never* see people listing this stock in their PMs portfolios. A newsletter I'm subscribed to described this stock as the safest way to play junior miners. Their industry presence, intellectual capital and connections means that they get *the best* private placement deals in the best opportunities. I cant compete with a staff like theirs and I'm not going to try. I bought this at 2.50, and I liked the dividend. Since then they did a reverse split to get on the NYSE and like the day after the stock soared.
When it comes to mining ETFS I like GOAU and SILJ the best. None of their major holdings are dead weight companies that are only there because of market cap. I dont want Barrick in my portfolio etc.
SGDJ is a neat version of GDXJ.
Aside from that my individual miners/royalty companies are (no particular order)
MMX
SAND
PAAS
PGM
AUM
AG
MUX
RIO- Rio2 on the tsx, not rio tinto
KTN
KL
Options/Volatility: varies
So this is where we get to the part about options, Volatility and how I do it. I started out in the options space with The Wheel strategy and the Tastytrade approach of selling premium. The spreads and puts I sell, are on shares listed above, in fact some of those I dont hold anymore.
Theres tons of stuff on this in thetagang and options so I wont go into a whole bunch (and you shouldnt be learning the mechanics from me anyway) but theres one thing I want to go over before it gets wild.
If I sell a Cash Secured Put, from a risk management perspective its identical to just buying 100 shares of the underlying security. You are equally "Short Vol" as well, it just that with options
its a little more explicit with the Greeks and everything. But if I use my margin that I was talking about earlier, then I can still collect the premium and the interest doesnt kick in unless Im actually assigned the shares.
But if I sell too many puts on KL or AG, and something happens where the miners get cut down (and lets be real, they all move together) my margin goes down and then I get assigned and kaboom...my account gets blown up
So what I need to do, is balance out the huge Short Vol situation in my portfolio, be net Long Vol and directly hedge my positions. Since the overwhelming majority of my equities are all tied to bullion this is actually a very easy thing to do.

Backspreads
https://youtu.be/pvX5_rkm5x0
https://youtu.be/-jTvWOGVsK8
https://youtu.be/muYjjm934iY

So I set this up so the vast majority of my margin is tied up in these 1-2 or even 1-3 ratio put spreads that *I actually put on for a small credit*, and roll them every once in a while. I run them on SLV, and GDX.
I keep enough room on my margin so I can withstand a 10% drawdown before it sets off the long end of the spreads and then I can ride it out until it turns around and we keep the PM bull market going.
Theres another cool spread I've been using, which is a modified Jade Lizard; if already hold shares, I'll sell a put, sell a covered call, and use some of the premium to buy a longer dated call. Ive been running this on AG mostly.
I have a few more spreads I can show you but Im tired now so it'll have to wait for later.
As I said multiple times, I do intend to trim these miners later but now isnt the time for that IMO. I'm also monitoring this almost full time since I have an injury and have nothing better to do until I heal :p
submitted by ChudBuntsman to pmstocks [link] [comments]

Gold and Silver: Where Do They Go From Here?

https://federationofglobalmerchants.com/2020/08/14/gold-and-silver-where-do-they-go-from-here/

Investors know by now that one of the leading indicators of an unstable and unpredictable stock market is a surge in the price of precious metals like gold and silver. In February, amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, the markets officially entered a recession, even though just months later several of the major indices have reached all-time highs. It was a brief dip into recessionary territory, but this sort of volatility is what gives investors hesitation in putting their money into the stock market, rather than something that is perceived to be more stable. Gold future contracts are selling well above $2000 per ounce for the rest of 2020 and well into 2021 as well showing that investors are confident that gold will continue to rise in price. Silver is also surging reaching new all-time highs on a daily basis. So investors may be curious as to how to get into this red-hot market, especially as the markets continue to fluctuate.
Gold:
For centuries now gold has been literally the ‘gold-standard’ of currency and wealth. Dating back all the way to around 40,000 B.C. in Spanish caves, gold is a naturally occurring element that has both fascinated and lured people for as long as barter systems and wealth has been recorded. Currently, gold is enjoying its highest valuations in history as investors flock to the stability of the precious metal through various streams. So what is the allure of gold and why is it so stable?
Warren Buffett once said, “Gold is a way of going long on fear.” That is quite a statement from perhaps the greatest investment mind of our generation. But what does this mean for the novice investor? Even the most successful blue-chip stocks can crash. Obviously the more prominent and profitable companies with mega market caps will not crash as easily as smaller companies, but given the volatility of the pandemic, we can see anything happen. But as stock markets fluctuate on a daily basis, the price of gold remains mostly stoic. Not as manipulatable as stock prices, gold is as steady as it gets for investors.
What makes gold so stable? It is a combination of factors, first and foremost, it is a physical and tangible element which makes it possible for people to store and stockpile. It does not corrode or wear down over time, making it durable and ensuring that the value remains. There is also a finite supply of it in the world. This reinforces that it will always keep a certain level of valuation as the supply is kept in check.
Today, as the Federal Reserve tries desperately to pump money into the American economy to stave off a global recession and keep companies afloat. Printing more American dollars helps in the interim, but it is a temporary band-aid for the bigger problem. As more of the dollar gets created the more it gets devalued as a form of currency. This is another reason why gold is skyrocketing. The two valuations always work inversely to each other, so as the greenback continues to plummet, the price of gold will continue to surge which makes perfect sense if one thinks about it. The value of gold is priced in American dollars per ounce, so if the value of an American dollar retreats, the cost of gold will rise in response.
So how can investors take advantage of the current state of gold? In the age of internet investing, there are plenty of ways to invest in gold or anything in that matter. Most American platforms give inventors the ability to buy fractional shares of companies. While this comes in handy for expensive stocks like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), or Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), it also allows investors to diversify their funds across multiple companies to form a basket approach to an industry. There are also plenty of ETFs or Exchange Traded Funds, available for investors to consider. These funds have the diversification of a mutual fund or index fund, but trade like individual stocks. Here’s a few of the better gold ETFs to consider if you are looking to get into the industry:
  1. IAU – iShares Gold Trust: One of the better known gold ETFs out there, iSHARES is a reputable brand with great overall market performance. The fund has returned over 17% to inventors already this year, and with the price of gold projected to continue to rise, this fund should keep delivering for investors into next year.
  2. DGL – Invesco DB Gold Fund: Another well known and reputable ETF, the Invesco Gold Fund has slightly higher fees than iSHARES but has also had a slightly better return so far this year.
  3. IAUF – iShares Gold Strategy ETF: Another iSHARES ETF, this one has parts of IAU, as well as gold futures contracts, to get a long term forecast of the price of gold so the investor gets exposure to a wider range of gold options.
There are dozens of other ETFs available for investors that cover everything from miners to the finished products. Mining company stocks are another great way to get exposure. As the demand for gold increases, these mining companies should see a rise in their revenues and eventually, their profits as well. These changes will be reflected in their stock prices and we have already seen some of this already this year.
  1. ABX – Barrick Gold: One of the largest gold mining companies in the world, this Canadian company has seen healthy gains in their stock price so far in 2020. Over the last 52 weeks, Barrick investors have enjoyed a 131% increase in stock price. With mining projects ongoing in Canada, America, Australia, South America, and Africa, Barrick has already announced that it is on track to achieve guidance this year despite closures from COVID-19.
  2. FNV – Franco-Nevada Gold: This stock price rose almost 15% in July alone. Franco-Nevada operates as a funding company to gold mining companies, rather than actually doing the mining themselves. Sustainalytics, a guidance and analysis company, rated Franco-Nevada number one amongst 104 precious metal companies.
  3. NEM – Newmont Goldcorp: The largest gold stock by market-cap and the only stock to trade on the S&P 500, Newmont is probably the safest company for gold investors to invest in. On top of steady returns and low volatility in the stock price, the company pays a fairly healthy dividend as well.
With gold at all-time highs, we can begin to question how high the precious metal may go. With a second wave of the coronavirus making its way around some parts of the world, and America, still making its way through their initial wave, the uncertainty that exists in today’s markets may continue into 2021. Some Wall Street analysts have forecast gold to rise as high as $10,000 per ounce, but that seems like a little ambitious. Gold has just recently hit all-time highs at $2000 per ounce and to imagine that it can run up another 500% in the next few years seems far-fetched at this point in time. That would require the markets to enter an extended bear-market, which of course is possible after a decade of a bullish run, but it would also require the American dollar to continue to be further devalued.
Gold is pegged to continue to rise for the rest of this year though and well into 2021. That means investors and analysts are foreseeing a further devaluation of the American greenback as well as continued volatility in the markets and economy. Is gold a safe haven? Some people believe it is, but if you are an investor that enjoys high returns over long periods of time, investing in precious metals may not be for you. Investors love the stability of gold but the returns are never astronomical, with the last few months being an exception. It helps to have a portion of your portfolio dedicated to precious metals to diversify and protect you from any sudden market corrections, but investors should not be looking at gold as a short-term way to get wealthy.
Silver: The other precious metal that has been flying sky-high of recent months is silver, the eternal younger brother to gold. Mined from silver-ore, it is a highly malleable metal that was once valued higher than gold by the Ancient Egyptians. Today, it is relatively low in price per ounce compared to gold, reaching all-time highs recently of just under $30 per ounce. Silver is another stable alternative to gold, and at lower prices, it may be a little more affordable for the novice investor to jump into.
Like with gold, silver has an inverse relationship to the American dollar, and to all currencies in general. Again, this is another reason why silver is hitting all-time highs right now, with silver future contracts predicting a steady rise to mirror gold, well into 2021. There is also something that Wall Street calls the gold silver ratio, which is exactly what it sounds like: the ratio of the price of gold per ounce to the price of silver per ounce. This ratio has historically moved together, which makes logical sense if both precious metals are independently moving inverse to paper currencies. Historically, the gold and silver prices do move together though as the general ratio has been in the range of 17:1 to 20:1.
Silver also has numerous ways for investors to get involved in, including silver mining and production companies, as well as the ever popular silver ETFs. These Exchange Traded Funds have gained popularity amongst retail investors in recent years as a way of purchasing a diversified product as a single equity with low costs, and no trading fees if your platform allows it. Here are a few of the better performing silver ETFs that investors can look into adding to their portfolios if they are interested in the precious metal:
  1. SLV – iShares Silver Trust: Probably one of the better known silver ETFs, this is fully backed by silver bullion and coins held in a vault. While usually fairly steady, this ETF has enjoyed a 52-week increase of 152% with much of that coming in the last few months.
  2. SIVR – Aberdeen Standard Physical Silver Shares ETF: Very similar to SLV but with lower fees, this is an ideal fund for novice and experienced investors to get into as they start to diversify their portfolios.
  3. DBS – Invesco DB Silver Fund: Again another stable ETF for investors to get into, and another good performing one as well. Just as with their gold ETF, Invsco focuses on silver futures contracts for this fund, so it is a nice long-term play if investors are bullish on silver.
Just as with gold, investors can get a slice of the silver pie by buying shares of silver mining companies as well. Here are a few of the top silver mining company stocks that investors can look into adding to their portfolios.
  1. PAAS – Pan American Silver Corp.: This Canada based miner is focussed on the exploration, development, extraction, refining, processing, and reclamation of silver. They operate mines in Peru, Mexico, Bolivia, and are developing more as well for the future.
  2. WPM – Wheaton Precious Metals: Another Canadian based company that deals with miners of gold, silver, palladium, and cobalt. Wheaton is not a direct miner, rather they purchase these precious metals from other mining companies.
  3. AG – First Majestic Silver Corp.: Canadian companies seem to be dominating the silver industry, and First Majestic is another of those. This company focuses mainly in Mexico for gold and silver.
Silver may never be as popular as gold for investors to keep track of but the two precious metals move in a synchronized fashion, and both are looked upon by investors as safe havens for their money when the market is in flux.
The rest of 2020 seems like a wildcard right now, with many analysts expecting a further correction to the markets at any point. There seems to be an inevitability to a market crash of some sort, whether it is as big as the one that happened back in February and March, remains to be seen. Investors are looking at the precious metal industry to hold their funds to wait out any sort of correction or crash. If this does happen, we may expect a pullback in precious metals too as investors selloff to get back into some stocks at their low levels. Such is the ebb and flow of the economy during turbulent times like the current one we are in.
At the same time, what if a market correction does not happen? Will the uncertainty continue or will investors feel relatively secure in the way the markets are progressing? This could cause a reduction in the demand for silver and gold, culminating in lower prices in the future. Of course this also depends on the Federal Reserve diminishing their rate of printing paper currency to bailout the economy, which does not seem like a reality in the short-term at least.
Another point of contention for investors is the ongoing economical and political tensions between China and America. The two world powers have been feuding for the past couple of months over various things, but it escalated as China social media app Tik Tok gained popularity in North America. It was alleged that TikTok was sending data and information from mobile phones back to China, though nobody is sure of their intended use of this data. Regardless, the markets have stumbled several times lately because of this. Both sides have threatened economic sanctions and the banning of certain product use in each country. The prices of silver and gold have shot up as the tensions have escalated between the two governments, as investors flock to the precious metals. Many of the biggest companies on the major stock indices rely on China for materials or production, so any sort of breakdown in supply chains could cause an enormous change to their stock prices. An example of this is a sudden 5% correction in the price of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), as it was thought that iPhone sales would decline if China’s chat platform WeChat was banned in America.
There are other factors that may have an effect on gold and silver prices as well. In this modern economy, many of the retail investors have trended towards younger adults with a sudden influx of income. Popular platforms such as Robinhood combined with increased time at home during the quarantine, have caused retail investor usage to skyrocket during the pandemic. Many of these investors are more lured in by the shiny new objects of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Perhaps we will start thinking of these cryptocurrencies as a modern day version of precious metals one day, as many investors and some analysts, believe that Bitcoin may be a safe haven in the future. Already, the price of Bitcoin has risen above $12,000 in August, mirroring the highs of gold and silver. If the demand for Bitcoin rises higher than the demand for precious metals, we may see an investor migration to cryptocurrencies rather than tangible metals.
Conclusion: Gold and silver are staples of our global economy, and will continue to be so as long as the demand for precious metals exists. In times of uncertainty, gold and silver are viewed as safe relative to the volatility of the stock market. Sure, their prices can vary as well, but because they are tied to a less dynamic valuation that is based on an inverse relation to paper currency, their prices will not and can not fluctuate as much as the liquidity of individual stocks.
As long as the world remains in flux, there will be a general feeling of instability, especially for global markets. A second wave of COVID-19 in the third or fourth quarter of 2020 could prove to be enough to push the markets over the edge and into another recession. The bull market has been rallying for over a decade now, with astronomical gains over the last few years, especially for sectors like the big tech FAANG stocks. Another factor to consider is what a Biden government could bring to the world if he is elected over President Donald Trump in October. A new government could ease some of the tensions with China, as well as within America itself. These are all big what ifs, and could all have potential impacts on the economy and the world. As long as all of these factors are up in the air, investors will be looking to gold and silver as ways of stabilizing their portfolios and protecting their finances from a potential market crash in the future.
submitted by Toughcatlove to u/Toughcatlove [link] [comments]

For Trading August 14th

For Trading August 14th
TSLA $1,645 + 91.24 (6%)
GOLD / SILVER Recover
BIDU GIVES POOR GUIDANCE
Today’s market got off to a slightly higher start on the combination of continuing claims and initial claims numbers and the report of higher import and export prices. The DJIA traded in a narrow range and finished midrange and -80.12 (.29%), the NASDAQ was higher all day hitting a high of +112 but gave back much of the gain closing +30.26 (.27%), S & P 500 -6.92 (.20%), the Russell -3.46 (.22%), and DJ Transports -49.62 (.45%) but still putting in a good show for the week. Market internals were soft with NYSE 1.5:1 and NASDAQ 1.3:1, both Down. Volume was lighter than yesterday.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also did this video over the weekend on a day-trade, (actually 2) that I made in AAPL on Friday. I think it’s highly informative as a guide to under what conditions these kind of trades in expiring options make sense. The link is https://youtu.be/qIV0G-hP3aM Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/a3e7lR_AR8U Today’s Video on the Coffee/ JO trade: https://youtu.be/JGFQ8iM8CPc
SECTORS: There really wasn’t much in the way of news today, with the exception of the California Court of Appeals denying the TRO from both UBER and LYFT on the classification of drivers as employees instead of contractors. Both have threatened to halt their services which account for about 16% of their revenues just in California. LYFT reported yesterday and the stock was down from a high of $31.62 to close today $28.83 -1.64 (5.37%) and UBER, which has fallen from a high of $34.79 a week ago to close the day today $30.46 -.38 (1.23%) but down 12% for the week. As mentioned before, CSCO reported a poor showing and last night it was $44.47, but it continued today and finished $42.72 -5.38 (11.2%). AMAT beat on revenues and earnings and gave solid guidance and after closing $65.07 – 1.43 it reversed higher and is $67.37 +2.30, and BIDU beat on earnings but with only in-line revenues and gave a warning about ad revenues in the coming quarter. It closed $124.57 -1.54 (1.22%) but is now trading $115.32 -9.25 (7.25%). FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was MIXED with TSN -1.11, BGS -.06, FLO -.14, CPB +.22, CAG -.14, MDLZ -.02, KHC +.22, CALM Unchanged, JJSF -.28, SAFM -1.14, HRL +.09, PPC +.07, SJM +.57, KR +.16, and PBJ $33.94 +.05 (.15%).
BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -4.72, ABBV -.51, REGN -1.46, ISRG +7.47, GILD -.61, MYL +.02, TEVA -.07, VRTX -3.70, BHC -.20, INCY +1.38, LABU +2.32, and IBB $134.11 +.30 (.22%). CANNABIS: was MIXED with TLRY +.21, CGC +.08, CRON -.01, GWPH -.52, ACB +.45, NBEV +.08, CURLF -.10, KERN -.22, and MJ $13.07 +.29 (2.27%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -3.20, GD -.10, TXT -.80, NOC -.78, BWXT -.40, TDY +.35, RTX -.29, and ITA $169.95 -.97 (.57%).
RETAIL: was MIXED with M -.03, JWN +.40, KSS -.18, DDS +.21, WMT +.55, TGT +.49, TJX -.52, RL +.32, UAA -.17, LULU +4.96, TPR -.09, CPRI -.30, and XRT $51.23 +.17 (.33%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +10.75, AMZN +4.26, AAPL +7.86, FB +2.62, NFLX +6.53, NVDA +1.59, TSLA +80.24, BABA -2.36, BIDU -10.28, CMG +37.02, BA -.14, CAT -1.57, DIS -.70, and XLK $113.96 +.05 (.04%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -3.33, JPM -.39, BAC -.33, MS -.17, C -.30, PNC -.99, AIG -.23, TRV +.41, AXP -1.14, V -.44, and XLF $25.08 -.16 (.63%).
OIL, $42.24 -.43. Oil was higher in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning on news of production cutbacks from Iraq. The stocks were LOWER with XLE $37.83 -.75 (1.94%).
GOLD $1,970.40 +21.40 was a dramatic sell-off taking the gold down as low as $1,874.00 before a rally back to $1,975. While I like the gold down here, I will have to see how it trades for a day or two. I am still a bull on the metal.
BITCOIN: closed $11,590 -75. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 yesterday. We had added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97, but sold 250 shares today @ $13.93. GBTC closed $13.09 -.02 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

Tesla +$185

For Trading August 18th
TSLA $1,835 +185 (11.2%)
GOLD / SILVER /BITCOIN RALLY
U.S.$$ INDEX FALLS
Today’s market WAS A SPLIT PERSONALITY RIGHT FROM THE START. While the S&P and NASDAQ worked higher, the DJIA was lower. At the close the DJIA was -86.11 (.31%), NASDAQ +110.43 (1%), S&P 500 +9.14 (.27%), the Russell +7.59 (.48%), and the DJK Transports -6.60 (.06%). The Bond market was also a split affair with the short end lower and longer term slightly higher, flattening the yield curve. Market internals were pretty much neutral with the NYSE 1:1 and the NASDAQ just 9:7 even with the rise. The DJIA was only 11 up and 19 down with the financials the weakest and HD, WMT, and V higher. On the downside we had BA -42, GS -34, UNH -22, AXP, JPM, and TRV all -19 DP’s. Tomorrow we have HD, WMT, and AAP earnings tomorrow before the open.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also did this video over the weekend on a day-trade, (actually 2) that I made in AAPL on Friday. I think it’s highly informative as a guide to under what conditions these kind of trades in expiring options make sense. The link is https://youtu.be/qIV0G-hP3aM Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/NKBjIjK6uvo Today’s Video on the Coffee/ JO trade: https://youtu.be/JGFQ8iM8CPc
SECTORS: There really wasn’t much in the way of hard news today, but Wells Fargo and Susquehanna both upping NVDA with new price targets, the highest on the street being Susquehanna’s $540. The stock took off like a shot and by the end of the day it had traded $496.96, it finished the day $493.48 +30.92 (6.7%) and it reports on Wednesday. TESLA was also higher on the continuing run to new highs also, and after its recent test of $1,365 a week ago, it ran right thru its old high $1,794.99 and just kept going. It finished $1,835.64 +184.93 (11.2%). They say splits don’t matter, but tell that to anyone who is short TSLA! FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was MIXED with TSN -.26, BGS +.58, FLO +.24, CPB +.65, CAG +.22, MDLZ +.40, KHC +.60, CALM -2.45, JJSF -.50, SAFM -2.36, HRL -.13, SJM -.47, PPC -.45, KR +.66, and PBJ $34.34 +.32 (.94%).
BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB -.29, ABBV +1.29, REGN +8.16, ISRG +9.48, GILD +.63, MYL +.06, TEVA +.09, VRTX +7.96, BHC +.39, INCY +2.61, ICPT -1.25, LABU +5.77, and IBB $136.17 +2.81 (2.11%). CANNABIS: was MIXED with TLRY -.15, CGC -.20, CRON -.01, GWPH +3.44, ACB -.58, NBEV +.06, CURLF +.50, KERN -.20, and MJ $12.72 +.03 (.24%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -2.46, GD -2.74, TXT -.65, NOC -2.29, BWXT -.65, TDY -4.57, RTX -.87, and ITA $168.56 -3.03 (1.77%).
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M -.06, JWN +.12, KSS +.30, DDS -2.16, WMT +4.59, TGT +3.67, TJX +1.73, RL +.24, UAA -.24, LULU +6.63, TPR -.09, CPRI +.06, and XRT $52.171 +1.16 (2.25%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +14.41, AMZN +37.99, AAPL -.63, FB +.15, NFLX -.08, NVDA +34.19, TSLA +185.29, BABA +4.01, BIDU +7.16, CMG +31.87, BA -5.60, CAT -1.24, DIS -1.03, and XLK $114.64 +.76 (.67%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -4.57, JPM -2.61, BAC -.60, MS -1.09, C -1.43, PNC -1.44, AIG -.92, TRV -2.60, V +2.81, and XLF $24.76 -.42 (1.67%).
OIL, $42.89 +.88. Oil was higher in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning on news of production cutbacks from Iraq. The stocks were LOWER with XLE $37.97 -.22 (.58%).
GOLD $1,998.70 +48.90 was a dramatic sell-off last week taking the gold down as low as $1,874.00 before a rally back to $1,950. I am still a bull on the metal, and we have a September bull call spread on using NEM 65/70 calls with a cost of $1.45, which closed today @ $2.63.
BITCOIN: closed $12,485 + 550. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $14.75 +1.35 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

White Swan came, Black Swan's a comin'

Like many here, I'm trying to come up with an investment thesis and a strategy for these uncertain times. I'm currently Bearish - have gone largely to cash, but want to invest in defensive plays because I see much more uncertainty ahead. So this long and rambling post is going to try to play with some ideas I've been having about the future. For the record, I've been investing for 8 years, was primarily an ETF buy and hold investor, and am Canadian, with a background in Political Science. ( I mean, I've got an undergraduate degree and a long-time interest, I'm no expert or nothing.)
I've read Nassim Taleb's Incerto series and have been mainly convinced, I think, and am surprised at the number of people who are calling this a Black Swan (BS) event; there's a post from today where a guy points out that it's not, and that Taleb himself says it's not and he got downvoted to hell. So first off: the Covid-19 pandemic was not a Black Swan. The Covid-19 pandemic, or one like it, has been predicted by damn near everybody for decades. The Obama administration even used a similar pandemic as a war game to get the Trump administration up to speed during the transition, Bill Gates called this years ago, we had a similar outbreak in SARS and H1N1, etc. Even if that wasn't the case, C19 would only be a BS for China - as a bunch of media sources have pointed out, there were US intelligence reports as far back as December saying this would be a huge deal, which were ignored by the administration. So all the suggestions that this is a BS event are really just pointing out how bad many governments, markets, and corporations are at predicting the future - they're unable to predict or prepare, or respond appropriately for a predictable event and only capable of reacting (with the exception of some countries like South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Germany...)
Now with the market rallying the bulls are all saying "it's priced in, you can't fight the Fed, etc," and I'm thinking:
1) The emperor has no clothes; the US government is clearly incompetent. It couldn't even listen to it's own experts about the likely extent of the pandemic, had no plan or even seemingly the ability to be at all proactive. For example, an aircraft carrier had a port call in Vietnam, during the middle of a pandemic that started in Asia. Then, completely predictably, it had an outbreak of C19 and it's capabilities were badly damaged and the administration couldn't even properly help it's own ship, nor manage the public relations fallout that resulted. I mean, do you have any idea how insane it is that that ship was allowed to dock during a pandemic? One of the most powerful military devices that ever existed got taken off line cause the administration couldn't understand it's own intelligence.
This incompetence isn't limited to the US of course - the UK handled their initial response badly and had to switch horses mid-race, Canada lagged badly responding as well, Italy and Spain mismanaged their response - but I'd argue that the US, given their advantages in intelligence collection, should have been best positioned to deal with this crisis so I focus on them.
2) Because of this, I think the odds of a real Black Swan event have gone up considerably, and if one does occur, it will occur when the US is historically divided and weakened and where it's economic system is out of ammunition to deal with a second crisis. I'll explain:
We have been living at at time when major geopolitical disruptions have been absent - while proxy wars and minor terrorist attacks still occur, there's been no wars between great powers for some time, and I think many have come to see this as natural; that the unipolar world will continue. But Russia is resurgent, China has a 50 year plan to grow its economy and eventually take a place as a hegemon, which may be entering end-game, and much of the Western international community has grown uncomfortable with US leadership, given the American tendency to elect incompetent Republicans. So we're likely entering an era of uncertainty and increased instability as the contenders vie for status in the new international order.
This doesn't mean war or open combat - it's become a cliche that the new wars of the 21st century are economic ones, and, given nuclear proliferation that's likely to continue. And I think we're more likely to see significant economic combat in the next 6 months than at almost any time during the last decade, because: 1) Trump is incompetent (and here I should stop just shitting on Republicans... the Dems have picked a 77 year old half senile fool to go up against him. I mean, looking at the two guys contending for the leadership of the most powerful country that has ever existed, it's hard to come away thinking that this is the sign of a healthy political system.)
2)America is weak (relatively speaking obviously, they're still the undisputed big swinging dick) and divided.
3)Because of C19 hits to economy, Trump may not be re-elected. I suspect that if it looked likely that he's re-elected, China at least would be content to sit quiet and wait for 4 more years of dumbasserry to take its toll on US hegemony - similarly with Russia. But if it looks like he'll lose come November, they'll take advantage.
What would that economic war look like? Lots of options that I see, and I'm curious if you guys see other ones. I mean, what would it look like if China dumped treasuries over the next 7 months? Or what would happen if China and Russia, or even OPEC+ decided to trade oil in non-US dollars? Or what if China leverages foreign aid to African and Asian countries hard-hit by C19 for long term trade deals designed to damage US interests? Iran and North Korea are additionally wild cards, and if either one is hard hit by C19 could go down flailing with unpredictable results. Any others I'm missing? Curious to hear other's ideas.
Now, note I'm not saying that odds of economic war with China or any other US adversary are likely; I'm saying if the odds of a geopolitical Black Swan were usually 5% in any given year of the last twenty, I suspect the odds of a major BS have gone up 4 or 5 fold - so like 20-30%. And I'm wondering, given unlimited QE, zero interest rates almost everywhere, central banks everywhere supporting stock and currency markets, etc -- what a defensive portfolio, preferably one that's still exposed to positive black swans like a sudden cure, would look like. Is it gold or silver? Cash? Bitcoin? I've already got enough guns and bullets and a bunker... just kidding about the bunker.
But seriously, I'm thinking something like 10-20% PMs and miners, 20% cash, 20% bonds and the rest equity ETFs of some countries likely to benefit from a stronger and more dominant China, like South Korea and Australia. Given Chinese dishonesty and the opacity of the financial system, investing directly in Chinese companies makes me nervous, though I've been considering a stake in BABA. Canada, it seems to me, is too joined at the hip with the USA to do anything other than follow where it goes.
Anyways, if you stuck with me through all that, thanks and I'd love to hear other's thoughts. I'm absolutely not a prepper nor prone to panic -- I just think we're living in real interesting times and the times are likely to get interestinger in the near future.
submitted by Davidallencoen to investing [link] [comments]

EWMCI Periodic Update 2020-08-17 [Full Version]

Dear EWMCI Community,
A lot has happened since our last Periodic Update! Most importantly, it seems that cryptocurrency markets have been in a bull run for the past three months... resulting in repeated 52-time-highs across all our indices! There are also some important updates about the EWMCI Ecosystem (see end of this message). But let's start with an overview of our four indices!
EWX-11 Index: Running for 13 weeks now, this index represents the EWMCI "Core-11" cryptocurrencies. Since its inception, the index has appreciated approximately 65% - an impressive short-term record. Looking at the chart, the overall momentum seems to be slowing at this time, indicating that a short-term correction may be in the cards.
Bronze Index: The small cap index has been making repeated 52-week highs since mid-May, 2020. In fact, it is up >220% since early March, 2020 and >380% since August, 2019! In terms of current price movement trends, the momentum seems to be drying up a bit, indicating that a near-term correction may be upon us. If that occurs, there is fairly strong support right around $115-$120, but hopefully the correction will end before reaching those levels.
Silver Index: The mid caps have been rallying since early March, 2020. In addition to being , we are >210% up since March, 2020. Having said that, the question of short-term sustainability arises. Given the current chart behavior, it seems that there was a failed "island reversal" in late July / early August, and now we may be in a somewhat uncharted territory. This means that prices will either revert toward consecutive support levels ($20-$22 and $18, respectively) or we will continue upward from here. The next 2-3 weeks will show!
Gold Index: Our large cap index has seen a major bull run in the past 7 weeks. There are two potential origins of this important move: [a] The ongoing increase in Bitcoin price; and [b] Investors transitioning from low-yielding bonds and stocks to higher-yielding staking coins. Given the magnitude of the recent upswing, the question of near-term sustainability arises. It is very likely that we will see some degree of downward pressure, but there is one big positive - There is now a fairly well defined support level right around $28-$29, going all the way back to mid-February, 2020.
Other Developments: NLexch.com has now officially closed its doors. We would like to thank NLexch for their long-term support and professionalism, and we look to the potential DEX concept proposed by the NLexch leadership. Significant portion of NLexch activities, especially those involving EWX-11 coins, has now transitioned to both Zapple.com and Fides-ex.com. Please continue to support these EWMCI exchange partners.
We are pleased to announce that xPloreNow.com is now up and running! Powered by Terracoin, xPloreNow.com is a truly independent, high-quality, reliable platform that provides comprehensive price discovery services for EWMCI "Core-11" coins (and increasingly for other cryptocurrency projects).
Finally, the September EWMCI Index Rebalancing is upon us! Please do not forget to cast your votes for candidate coins... use the following link: https://linkto.run/p/GUDJIRLX
Till next update!
Cheers,
S / EWMCI.info
Always remember - Your wallet, your keys, your control, your coins!
submitted by z-forum-guy to EWMCI [link] [comments]

Market Analysis on April 7, 2020: The Current Market Is Like A Sudden Serious Illness, And Will Not Recover so Quickly

Market Analysis on April 7, 2020: The Current Market Is Like A Sudden Serious Illness, And Will Not Recover so Quickly
[Today's Hot Tips]
1. [Senior Japanese Officials: The current lack of Japanese digital asset tax policy may lead to capital outflows]
Shun Otokita, a representative of the Reformed Party, a senior official of the Japanese government, said that the current national tax system cannot yet accept digital asset declarations, which may lead to capital outflows, and pointed out the importance of market research on taxation of cryptocurrencies separately. Otokita acknowledged that it is difficult to quickly modify the tax law to apply to digital assets, but pointed out that it is necessary to conduct market research to determine which changes are necessary.
2. [BB: The global macro environment is jointly highlighting the value of encryption]
On April 7, Brendan Blumer, CEO of Block.One, tweeted that the global macro environment has never been as prominent in the value of encryption as it is now, and it will be the same for the next 24 months.
3. [The Central Bank continues to promote the development of legal digital currency]
According to the People ’s Daily news on April 6, the People ’s Bank of China ’s video and telephone conference on 2020 national currency, gold, silver and security work was recently held in Beijing. The conference made plans for the key work in 2020, and proposed to unswervingly advance the research and development of legal digital currency, systematically promote the reform of cash issuance and return systems, and accelerate the promotion of banknote processing business, issuance of warehouse guards, and issuance of fund escort transformation.
4. [Binance is subject to a class action in the United States]
Binance was subject to a class action in the United States, and lawyers said the case was unlikely to be rejected.
The Southern District Court of New York received a series of class action and the lawsuits targeting the top companies and projects in the crypto industry such as Binance. The news was first disclosed by Offshore Alert. It is reported that at least 10 similar class-action lawsuits were filed in the Southern District Court of New York, accusing Binance and other crypto companies of selling unregistered securities products to US investors. It is reported that the lawsuit was initiated by the US law firm Roche Cyrulnik Freedman, and the prosecution also included many executives such as Zhao Changpeng, CEO of the cryptocurrency exchange Binance. It is worth mentioning that the law firm had also represented Craig Wright in the multi-billion-dollar Bitcoin lawsuit.
[Today's market analysis]
Bitcoin (BTC)
https://preview.redd.it/nkur97xeqcr41.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=d636b554e0f939600291dda992dbe2c4a3268b93
BTC continued to rise from around $ 7070 early this morning, and rose to around $ 7300 at around 3:45. Now, BTC has returned to $ 7250 sideways. The mainstream currencies followed the consolidation and generally rose sideways. BTC is currently reported at $ 7288.06 at LOEx Global, an increase of 2.09% in the day.
The recent market has basically maintained a volatile trend around 7200 points, and there has been no surge or decline. Looking at the short line, the bulls have been relatively strong recently. On Saturday and Sunday, they did not choose to go down but oscillate to repair. Seeing that the rebound has recovered half of the decline, it is necessary to be cautious here, because after all, the previous currency disaster did not recover so quickly, just like a sudden illness, how can it recover so quickly. So now is a good time to sell high and sell low. Do not blindly bullish.
The real bottom is found afterwards and it was caused by funds. Every time I see it, the trend from the left to the right reverses the process. As an ordinary investor, if there is no more than 100 million in funds, you can see the right and enter the market, getting rid of the downward channel and turning to the right, there is a process of stabilization. At the same time, the trend of the pattern also has characteristic signals, such as the appearance of a single-day surge, red soldier and other signals. Then it will soon get rid of the downward channel, and the turnaround will slowly take shape. On the contrary, it is the same when you reach the top, for example, three crows, bearish engulfing, and other combinations. Thoroughly fundamental research on industries and varieties, quantified to actual operation, the test is more strategy, psychology, experience. In fact, it is necessary to analyze various different types of products. Mainstream coins and value coins, blue chip, white horse and technology stocks have different ways of playing. Different volatility will naturally have different operating methods. In principle, looking at industry trend opportunities from top to bottom, and then looking at specific varieties and trading points from bottom to top, they interact to understand the art of investment more deeply, and the unity of knowing and doing, in fact, everyone can do better.
Operation suggestions:
Support level: the first support level is 7200 points, the second support level is 7000 integers;
Resistance level: the first resistance level is 7400 points, the second resistance level is 7700 points.
LOEx is registered in Seychelles. It is a global one-stop digital asset service platform with business distribution nodes in 20 regions around the world. It has been exempted from Seychelles and Singapore Monetary Authority (MAS) digital currency trading services. Provide services and secure encrypted digital currency trading environment for 1 million community members in 24 hours.
submitted by LOEXCHANGE to u/LOEXCHANGE [link] [comments]

The Next Recession May be Brutal: That’s a Net Positive for Gold and Bitcoin

Prominent gold bull Peter Schiff predicts that the next recession will be brutal, and owning gold or Bitcoin will be a net positive.
The US economy is more robust than it has ever been. With a roaring stock market and decent consumer spending, talk of recession is minimal. However, certain aspects of this growth are cause for investors like Schiff to raise the alarm:
“Today’s revisions to Q3 GDP confirm the U.S. economy is a bubble. GDP ‘growth’ is driven completely by excess consumer and government spending, as the real economy contracts. But such spending is a function of debt, much of which can’t be repaid. The coming bust will be brutal!”
With the S&P 500 pushing record high after record high, stock market traders are as bullish as ever. Such sentiment could make the next crash particularly devastating. In the 2008 financial crash, stocks in a hallmark Wall Street firm, Bear Stearns, went from over $100 to $2 within a week. Investing in stocks can be great, but when it rains, it pours.
Accurately predicting the next recession is often a hit-and-miss game even for the top analysts. Even those who predicted the financial crisis of 2008 couldn’t pinpoint with precision when it would begin. Regardless, this does not discredit anyone who tells investors to be cautious. The issues Schiff raises are pertinent to the macro-economic stability of the American and global economies.
Even those who make the right predictions about an upcoming recession have no respite if they do nothing about it. Building a defensive portfolio is one way to absorb such shocks. In recent decades, gold has distinguished itself as the premier safe-haven asset.

Gold Prices During a Recession

Gold has historically performed well during times of financial uncertainty. Naturally, recessions are the extreme end of such turmoil, meaning that gold prices should peak. In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, gold prices rose dramatically and peaked in 2011 at the height of quantitative easing measures from major central banks.
If a brutal crisis such as Schiff predicts could happen comes to pass, gold prices should ease past the $2,000 mark. Gold has millennia of reputation and scarcity that makes it the perfect safe-haven asset in such a crisis. Therefore, investors see it as a valuable asset to hedge against recessions. If you are already in one, it can provide cover against further negative slides. This stability is why investors like Schiff advise that traders have anywhere between 10–30% weighting in gold. Whether split between physical gold and mining equities, gold-backed ETFs, or any other arrangement, gold has a track record of weathering the storm.

Bitcoin as a Store of Value Asset

Using the phrase ‘store of value’ for Bitcoin may sound like an oxymoron. After all, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are notorious for volatility in their few years of existence. In the 2018 calendar year, Bitcoin went from about $18,000 down to about $3,400 only to rebound to over $10,000 by mid-2019.
However, one trait gives Bitcoin a silver lining: decentralization. Bitcoin is a decentralized, pseudonymous network that is independent of central bank control. Accordingly, Bitcoin has the eye of many investors who seek to diversify their holdings.
So far, there is little evidence as to whether Bitcoin will trade like a safe-haven asset during a full-blown crisis. The fact that Bitcoin does not have a direct correlation to the mainstream is what drives interest. Bitcoin prices are purely market-driven as no one controls supply like regular fiat.
Therefore, some speculate that in the event of a financial crisis, investors will flock to Bitcoin just like gold. Recent history suggests that temporary Bitcoin investors hold the coin for speculative purposes rather than a store of value. Will this change soon?
It could be that investors allocate money to risky assets when they feel comfortable about investing generally. Therefore, there is a distinct possibility that investors could shy away from Bitcoin during times of economic turbulence.
What will transpire during an actual recession is difficult to predict. Bitcoin may have insulation from mainstream stocks, but bearish sentiment can affect investor sentiment either way. You can have a situation where investors hedge Bitcoin more or avoid high-risk assets in general. It will take time before Bitcoin has the stability and reputation of gold.
The maturity of crypto markets between now and when an actual recession hits is also a factor. Bitcoin can be a viable alternative to gold, but a lot of stars have to align.

Gold’s Edge

Based on current economic and policy trends, gold is in the perfect position to have a net positive from a recession. Incredibly, even with the S&P 500 and other stock market indices up by a lot, gold has had a strong bull run in 2019.
The macro-economic factors that have fueled gold prices include geopolitical tensions and low interest rates. All through 2020, these factors will still loom large.
Gold enjoys a stability that Bitcoin holders can only dream of. Even in the rare event that an institution or person dumps a significant amount of gold in the market, the net price effect will not be as drastic as with other assets.
Demand for gold is only getting stronger with the resilience it is showing. Central banks in emerging and struggling economies are adding rapidly to their gold holdings to hedge against currency slides. Accordingly, the likes of Russia, China, Kazakhstan, and Turkey have added significantly to their gold reserves in recent years.
Part of this demand stems from an effort to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency. Russia and China are dealing with sanctions and a trade war, respectively, while many developing countries have stuttering currencies. Gold provides a useful alternative to store value for such countries.
Additionally, Islamic countries like Iran, Malaysia, Turkey, and Qatar are considering a gold barter system among themselves to hedge against future economic sanctions. Iran continues to bear the brunt of punitive sanctions while Qatar almost experienced an economic shutdown after a Saudi orchestrated blockade in 2018. The deliberations began after an economic summit led by Malaysian PM Mahathir Mohamed from the 18th to the 21st of December 2019.
Therefore, gold enjoys a universal credibility that Bitcoin and crypto can only dream about. When looking to store value or hedge against a stock crash, gold is still the premier asset to hold.

Gold to Surge in the Coming Decade

Many analysts see the tremendous upside of holding gold now. Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital president, recently touched on this sentiment in comments to Yahoo Finance:
“I think gold’s going to $2,500, $3,000 an ounce in the 2020s because the climate — the landscape for gold is so hugely supportive.”
Investors see the value of using bullion as a hedge. Even though gold cannot replace government bonds entirely in portfolio diversification, the case for reallocating a portion of normal bond exposure to gold is as strong as ever.
Bullion has had a steady decade of growth through the 2010s. It has performed better than most assets, save for outliers like cryptocurrencies. Stocks have rallied in the past decade, but a combination of high debt levels and low interest rates places the value of fiat at a precarious place. These factors have allowed gold to maintain solid prices even through periods of relative economic prosperity.
For those who distrust fiat and central bank management of fiat, hedging gold is a no-brainer. Having at least 10% gold in your portfolio is a decent approach to start the next decade. Investing in bullion, gold mining equity, or gold-backed ETFs provides useful diversification to your portfolio. With digital gold-backed tokens now available in the market, you don’t need to worry about the hassle of storing and transporting the gold. Either way, investing in gold now puts you in a great position entering the new decade.
submitted by y0ujin to NovemGold [link] [comments]

Google Trend Data as a "Goldphoria" metric

Google Trend Data as a
I might be getting ahead of myself but I imagine near the end of the coming precious metals bull market there will be a significant amount of euphoria. The way I see it: Gold/silver and PM stocks will rise astounding levels. Seeing this too late but still wanting in on the action(FOMO) many retail investors buy PMs and mining stocks right as they are at a top thus propelling them to even higher tops well beyond any sound fundamentals. Then this all comes crashing down when the market goes from a voting machine back to a weighing machine. Euphoria is often interpreted as one of many tell tail signs of the end of a bull market. This is good for those of us who get in the stocks sooner rather than later as it offers even more potential gains with ski slope like spikes in price in the twilight hours of the bull market... That is IF we can time the end of the bull market and the euphoria that typically comes with it to therefor profit from it... Easier said than done. But here is an attempt to add one more tool to help identify gold/silver market euphoria.
Enter Google Trends. You type in a search term or topic and Google will tell you how many people have been searching it every week since 2004. Many of you have probably heard of crypto investors citing Google Trend data referring to the number of people Google searching "Bitcoin" as a predictor of future strength/weakness in the crypto market. The assumption being that some of the people searching it will turn into buyers. More searchers = more buyers. This same method can be applied to precious metals to identify when large amounts of retail investors are entering and fleeing PMs. This certainly has its limitations however. The big money(hedge funds etc) will hopefully not be caught googling "How to buy gold". That's why this is more so a euphoria indicator rather than a strength indicator. By the time the "average" person has heard of it, its probably too late or darn close to it.
One example of how this tool can be used is comparing the price of gold to the number of people Googling the term "How to invest in gold" seen in the graph below...
https://preview.redd.it/ibtvmk31uok31.png?width=582&format=png&auto=webp&s=f353a569337eee3658cb946a00826bf1a586efc2
Regarding the Google search data (seen in blue) from 2004-June 2011 there is a significant amount of uninterruptible noise with a barely distinguishable upward trend. However this changes significantly from July to August 2011 where the number of searches sky rocketed with a +50% increase. Then from August to September plummeting with a -40% decrease back down to normal levels. What is significant about this is that although gold had been making yearly all time highs since 2001 it wasn't until the exact month that gold achieved its still standing all time high of over $1,900/oz. that the number of people Googling "How to invest in gold" went ballistic. If you were watching this data in August 2011 and decided to sell upon seeing the euphoria explosion that August then you would have exited right at the tippy top of the last bull run. However as the saying goes if "Ifs and Buts" were candy and nuts then we would all have made a lot of money in gold stocks. Meaning there is no guarantee that we will see the same pattern of behavior in the upcoming bull market. Moreover it is certainly more accurate to use fundamentals or Dow/Gold ratio etc to predict its end rather than the number of people Google searching a term or topic. With that said this is just one example of Google Trend's application and I am sure better predicting search terms and topics can be found with more experimentation. The bottom line: Should you live and die by this metric? Only if you want to die by it. Is it an interesting metric warranting further exploration and possible monitoring? Sure, why not.
submitted by strungestbean to Gold [link] [comments]

Bitcoin is a Giffen good

Giffen good-- a good, demand for which increases following a rise in price. In other words, an inverted demand curve.

There was an article in Bloomberg the other day claiming "The Bond Market is a Giffen good." If you follow global markets, it's absolutely worth a read. I have had the same thought about Bitcoin for a while.

Why is Bitcoin a Giffen good?

  1. The higher the BTC price, the larger the market, and the less volatile. The greater perception of safety and reliability in the asset.
  2. Relating to point #1, a higher price creates a sense of importance in the asset. As the price goes up, the news media & experts become more deferrent rather than critical. (When the price falls, they flip-flop again, and once again become critics)
  3. The more money people make with Bitcoin, the more they tell their friends, who go out and make purchases.
  4. People fundamentally have an instinct to buy things that are going up. (This instinct causes bubbles, but it's not all bad. things going up do tend to go up in the future, this phenomenon is known as a trend)

What are the implications?

The most obvious implication is that a rising price creates rising demand, creates rising price. A feedback loop.

Isn't the same true of silvegold/beanie babies/stocks?

Yes-- however, the reason that these assets cannot rise 100x in 5 years, is that although the demand curve slopes upward during bubble-like conditions, the supply curve looks like a very normal, healthy supply curve -- the higher the price, the greater the supply. Every bubble in an asset with a healthy supply curve will eventually be brought down to earth. The realization that "the bubble is now over" in turn, flips the demand curve back to normal, and price normalcy returns. (Is there any major non-crypto asset with an "inverted" supply curve? Are there any historical examples to learn from? The answer is no, so you have to make a guess and use your head, instead.)
Bitcoin has neither a healthy supply curve nor a healthy demand curve. The asset is entirely and thoroughly diseased, and just like in a diseased human being, the result is that numbers normally kept within a certain range by negative feedback loops, parameters are going completely bonkers.
Giffen Good status plus inverted/flat supply curve guarantee that the Bitcoin bull market since 2009, continues over time.
submitted by Jowemaha to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin at $136,000: Can it become the new gold standard?

Over the past year, Bitcoin’s been on a wild ride from a low of $1,183 to a peak of $19,401.
With Bitcoin’s skyrocketing prices, detractors from J.P. Morgan chief Jamie Dimon (“[Bitcoin] is a fraud”) to Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett (“I can say almost with certainty that [cryptocurrencies] will come to a bad ending”) have been quick to decry the digital currency as a bubble.
Predicting a crypto bubble has become the latest trend as Bitcoin and other currencies have risen meteorically. In spite of this, Bitcoin has shown that it is still a new asset with room to grow.
Bitcoin’s current market cap of $134 billion, is massive compared to most companies, and even some countries. But this pales in significance compared to traditional assets like gold. If Bitcoin becomes a widely accepted store of value, it may one day replace some of the functions of gold in the market.
Today, there is an estimated 190,040 tonnes of gold above ground in the world, with 54,000 known reserves below ground that can be mined. At today’s rate of $1,335 per ounce, that means there’s around $11.5 trillion worth of gold in the world that we know about.
Imagine that Bitcoin replaces 25% of today’s gold market. Bitcoin would leapfrog another 17x above today’s current prices.
Here’s some (very rough) back-of-the-paper-wallet math:
25% of $11.5 trillion gold reserves = $2.86 trillion $1.975 trillion market cap of bitcoin / 21 million bitcoin = 136,190 price per bitcoin While this scenario may seem extremely far-fetched, it’s not completely out of the realm of reality. In this article, we’ll look at some of the key characteristics that Bitcoin shares with gold that make it useful as a store of value and speculate around how Bitcoin might eat into the dominance of gold.
What is a Store of Value? Skeptics like to point out that Bitcoin isn’t that useful as a currency. It can have high fees, long transaction times, and comes with numerous security risks. It’s still much easier to pay for goods and services with a credit card than sending bitcoin to someone’s public address.
Yet all these things actually make Bitcoin similar to something people have valued for thousands of years: gold.
Gold has certain properties that make it useful. It conducts electricity well, and it looks pretty. But if you compare gold to more common metals such as copper or nickel, it’s actually a lot less useful for making things — it bends too easily.
The main utility of gold is that it functions as a store of value. Because gold is extremely scarce and expensive to produce it tends to retain value over time. If you buy gold today, you’ll likely be able to exchange it for a similar amount in the future.
To understand how gold functions as a store of value and how Bitcoin might replace it, we have to dig deeper into the history of gold.
A Brief Primer on Gold Gold has been valued and used as a store of value for millennia. The first known use of gold as currency began several thousand years ago in Asia.
Even with the widespread adoption of paper currency in the form of bank notes in the 19th century, the gold standard remained the most popular financial system in the world. Nations would set a fixed price that they would trade gold for paper money. For centuries, gold was an acceptable form of currency. That’s a big part of why gold is still valuable today — we believe that gold is valuable, and this belief has been culturally ingrained.
Gold has a number of properties that make it useful for this purpose. For starters, it lasts a really long time.The chemical half-life of gold is 168 days, compared to 130 days for silver, and a mere 61 hours for copper.
Gold is also easy to split up into smaller parts and transport. You can remelt a gold ingot into smaller gold coins, or even smaller pieces of jewelry. It’s also portable: an ounce of gold is worth $1,335 and weighs the same as a slice of bread. It’s estimated that the 190,040 tonnes of gold above ground would fit into a cube with 67 foot sides.
Today, we use gold for many different things. Jewelry is the most common use-case representing roughly 48% of all above-ground gold. 21% is used for private investment, whether in the physical form of gold bullion or in financial instruments like exchange-traded funds. Another 17% is used by the official sector by central banks as a reserve currency. The other 14% is used for other purposes, from industrial applications like electronics to dentistry.
source: World Gold Council
While the gold standard has largely been abandoned, gold remains a useful hedge against currency instability.
That’s because gold is inherently scarce, with a limited supply. On average, 1,500–3,000 tonnes of gold is mined each year, adding a mere 1–2% annual increase to the supply of gold. It’s also highly liquid and can be exchanged for money anywhere in the world.
Central banks buy gold to avoid currency risks and hedge against inflation. Gold is held in reserve and can be liquidated quickly in times of crises. In 2016, Russia’s central bank purchased 201 tonnes of gold in response to a weakening rouble and international sanctions, making it the largest acquirer of gold.
Today, gold continues to retain its significance because it operates as a store of value that’s removed from the financial system.
The Bull Case for Bitcoin: Why Bitcoin may replace Gold On the surface, Bitcoin and gold couldn’t be more different. Bitcoin is a digital, peer-to-peer currency created in 2008, and distributed across nodes around the world. Gold is a natural element that is mined from the ground, and which has been used as a store of value for millennia.
Despite these differences, Bitcoin and gold both share characteristics that make them useful as a store of value:
Just like the supply of gold is constrained to the amount that can be mined, the supply of Bitcoin is written into the code and maxes out at 21 million coins. While gold is relatively portable, can be verified, and divided into smaller units, Bitcoin is cryptographically secured, controlled via private key, and can be divided infinitely. That gives it distinct advantages over gold as a store of value.
While gold is useful as a store of value because it’s valuable relative to physical size, this still adds up when you’re operating at scale. For example, when the German central bank wanted to bring home 374 metric tons of gold back to Frankfurt, the gold had to be assessed for purity, be remolded from bullion into bars, then secured and transported. The whole operation cost $ 9 million. There’s a clear argument that a digital currency like Bitcoin would be much better suited to maintain reserves than gold bars.
Central banks are already beginning to look at the benefits of digital currencies. The Swedish central bank is investigating the possibility of launching a digital supplement to cash, called the e-krona. Singapore is experimenting with use-cases for cryptocurrency from cross-border payments to creating a digital Singapore dollar.
Similar to gold, Bitcoin sees high usage as a store of value in countries with currency controls or instability. In Argentina, for example, people use Bitcoin to circumvent government currency controls mean, saving nearly 40% on foreign currency exchanges. In Venezuela, Bitcoin usage has become widespread to buy everything from food to movie tickets in the face of 2,616% inflation. The Venezuelan government even launched its own contentious cryptocurrency, called the Petro, in an effort to circumvent international sanctions.
Like gold, Bitcoin provides a store of value that’s separated from the official financial system. Unlike gold, Bitcoin is far easier to hold onto and exchange. If 25% of the gold that’s used as a store of value in jewelry, private investment, and the official sector moves to Bitcoin, we may see Bitcoin at $136,190.
The New Gold Standard Bitcoin rose from the 2008 financial crash, promising a digital currency free from central bank intervention. This is something that we’ve always needed — just look at gold. Gold is useful because it provides a store of value outside of currency and stock markets. Bitcoin, if it’s able to address key technical and scalability challenges, has the potential to do the same.
What’s important to remember is that despite the boom-and-bust hype cycle, we’re still in the early innings.
https://blog.sfox.com/bitcoin-at-136-000-can-it-become-the-new-gold-standard-ee98b11aacfc
submitted by pmp301 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

2018 - 2030: The grand battle between bitcoin, precious metals and fiat currency

edit: I like that 30% of you are downvoting this post because you think bitcoin is going to the moon right this year, we'll never have a bear market ever again and the S-curve reigns supreme. Nope, governments were never going to make it that easy. Crypto will have its day in the sun, but that day is not today.
I have seen things. Don't ask me how. My dreams can be cryptic.
The destruction of fiat has already begun in earnest, but we're only in the 1st inning. The next 10 years will be characterized by the destruction of the USD, and the rise of the Chinese yuan backed by gold.
Gold and crypto are the two twin pillars that will destroy fiat. Thanks to crypto we're looking at a resurfacing of a global consciousness and desire for a non-state backed currency, harkening back to the days of a gold-backed money supply. Throughout history, empires have risen and fallen. The strongest empire's currency has always been the choice reserve currency of that era, but as an empire grows complacent and the government officials decadent, so does the temptation to debase their currency. The privilege of being the reserve currency globally gives them a sunset period of 20-40 years as the inevitable decline happens. It all began when Nixon took the USD off the gold standard.
Both China and Russia has been quietly accumulating gold over the past 10 years, restricting exports and increasing imports of gold. China is the world's largest oil importer and is in the process of switching over from paying for oil in USD to yuan, and redeemable into gold. The ramifications are massive. Increasingly the world is turning back on the US and its currency.
China is clamping down on cryptocurrency heavily as it interferes with their grand plan: they plan to shock the world in 2019 by announcing that they will go back to a partial gold-backed standard. Not fully-backed due to constraints in monetary policy advised by their Chinese economists, but sufficiently so such that the world gains confidence in the yuan and central banks globally begin selling their USD in earnest from the current 60%+ weighting, demoting it to a 30%+ weighting in favour of yuan as it dawns on them the USD might have just lost its reserve currency status. In this chaos, as we see across all regime changes, central banks begin buying gold in earnest. Other countries respond by backing their currency with gold as well. China becomes the new global superpower.
Thanks to this, the gold price will move to all-time highs and start trading above $2k in 2019. This will see the beginning of a gold rush we've never seen before. Old and institutional money begins to pour into precious metals; new and speculative money pours into cryptos. Cryptos enter into a final blow-off-top a year later not unlike the 2000 tech top in 2020. Bitcoin crashes 70% from $1m to $300K. As this happens, the whole world goes all-in into gold and yuan as the new safe havens as this is simultaneously accompanied by a major sell-off across both equities and bond markets. The rout will not stop till the mid 2020s. Gold is now trading at $7k/oz and silver at $200/oz. In fact, gold, as is most asset classes, are no longer quoted in USD but yuan. Africa begins to wield significant influence in the global political arena with South Africa leading the charge, due to their massive gold holdings and gold mines.
The year is 2025. In the depths of a recession even more severe than the one we saw in 2009, the US government reveals they have been accumulating bitcoin since 2018, and have built a sizeable position of 500,000 BTC (equivalent to $250b with BTC trading at $500k). This sparks the re-birth of a new bitcoin bull run as the other central banks announces they too, now hold some BTC. Many central banks, especially the resource-poor countries who never saw the rebirth of gold coming, begin accumulating BTC as well. Many now fear Russia and China's dominance in the gold market. Despite gold being a decentralized store of wealth, the natural geographical distribution has made many other resource-poor countries bitter, and an unspoken alliance began taking shape as central banks secretly accumulate bitcoin. Countries begin to publicly denounce gold, even as gold ownership is quickly being transferred into the blockchain. Gold prices fall after entering a blow-off top in 2027.
Bitcoin begins to climb until it reaches a "demand equilibrium" with gold. By 2030, bitcoin is valued at $2m+ and represents a significant percentage of the global money supply and gold has fallen to $4k/oz. By the 2030s+ the world has transitioned to a fiat system that is completely transparent. All countries' reserves in both bitcoin and gold are publicly trackable on the blockchain. While fiat continues to live on, governments in the aftermath of the early 2020s recession now have learnt fiscal prudence and bond yields actually reflect market-priced default risk depending on a country's money supply vis a vis the value of the bitcoin and gold their central bank holds.
The economy never really recovered from the recession in the 2020s. Artificial intelligence had taken over most of the economy's jobs, and the wealth inequality continued to widen as more and more wealth accrued to owners of capital. The crash in the equity markets at the turn of the decade had also wiped out a generation's savings and therefore willingness to spend - the millennial investors who had gleefully piled into FAANGs as everyone turned euphoric into the last days of the stock market bubble. Deflation began to set in as the boomers started dying in record numbers, and consumer spending ground to a halt as nobody except the elites and the crypto-rich had any money to spend. By the late 2020s governments realized that a form of universal basic income was necessary or the economy would never recover, but a redistribution of wealth was not going to be possible. Countries came together and decided that a new UBI cryptocurrency would be created, in direct proportion to the amount of bitcoin and gold each country owned. With every single individual having their own unique identity stored on the blockchain, this was easy and transparent to implement. This ultimately paved the way for a global common cryptocurrency in 2030. Gold began to lose its shine.
By the mid 2030s, we entered a golden era for the human race as the wealth inequality came back down to levels unseen in the past 500 years. Productivity reached a new high, assisted by mature technologies that first appeared in the 2010s. Significant life extension, space exploration, nanotechnology, then the uploading of the human consciousness ...
In 2040, we encountered the Singularity.
edit: pardon the grammatical and language errors, but i wanted to catch all the details before the vision fades. it comes and goes.
submitted by laobuggier to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

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